Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 022035
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH EMBEDDED H5/H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WITH A MEAN SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE NE PANHANDLE
AND ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...RAP ANALYSIS (WHICH IS IN LINE WITH EARLIER
NAM) SHOWS 2000 J/KG OF SB CAPE IN PLACE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...CENTERED OVER OUR CWA. CINH APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER ONLY SOME SHALLOW CU HAVE FORMED SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. AS MID LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO EASTERN COLORADO I WOULD EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO SPREAD EAST
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE. HRRR/RAP BOTH
INDICATE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER OUR CWA WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST. BULK SHEER/HELICITY ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE (WEST). MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...AND THIS COULD LIMIT COVERAGE TO
ISOLATE/SCATTERED. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL AND INSTABILITY ARE SHOW IN
IN THE LOWER SHEER ENVIRONMENT...WHERE PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS/CORES...WITH LARGE
HAIL/SEVERE WINDS POSSIBLE. DCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG AND IN
HIGHER TD DEPRESSIONS (MAINLY WEST) DO RAISE A CONCERN FOR INCREASED
MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. IF ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY WAS TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CWA IT COULD BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED WITH INCREASING SPEED SHEER (35KT BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER
AROUND 00Z). AS THE SUN SETS AND WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THERE IS ELEVATED CAPE
LATE AND ONLY A WEAK LLJ IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AS SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS
A LITTLE OVER THE CWA AND WAA INCREASES OVER THE CWA. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. HIGHS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH MOST IN THE 80S...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 90 (MAINLY MCCOOK/HILL CITY). SURFACE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT JUST A LITTLE BIT EAST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
COULD BRING HIGHER TD VALUES INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS. NAM MAY BE A
LITTLE HIGH...BUT EITHER WAY THIS BETTER BL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
HIGHER CAPE VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE.
SHEER MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER WHERE GOOD INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE THAN TODAY...SO THERE MAY BE A BIGGER THREAT FOR MORE
ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF ANYTHING IS TO DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO INITIATE
PRIMARILY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH
DRIER MOISTURE PROFILES AGAIN IN PLACE COVERAGE COULD BE LIMITED
AT LEAST UNTIL LATER WHEN BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING/DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVINGS IN TO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR NORTHWEST KANSAS
WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO COLORADO TUESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE FA SUNDAY EVENING AND INITIATE STORMS
NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. PLAN TO USE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA WITH LOWER
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA. PLAN TO KEEP HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA AS STORMS DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE FA
OVERNIGHT.  THERE SHOULD BE A LULL MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE EXITING
WAVE. POPS WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH.  MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LOOK
GOOD FOR MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS.
GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY
AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ACROSS THE FA FOR TUESDAY RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES. PLAN TO
CONTINUE LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID 40S
IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 50S IN THE EASTERN FA.  MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE EASTERN FA.

IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WEDNEDAY NIGHT.  GOOD
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SUPPORT HIGH POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  POPS
WILL DECREASE TO CHANCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW PRODUCING
STORMS. POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH COOLER READINGS IN EASTERN COLORADO.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY WARM TO THE 70S EACH DAY WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN COLORADO AND NEAR 80 IN THE EASTERN FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 12KT SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PRIMARY AVIATION
CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ALONG COLORADO STATE LINE WITH
ACTIVITY TRANSITIONING EAST AND SOUTH BASED ON SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE. THIS PLACES ACTIVITY WITHIN THE VICINITY OF KGLD...BUT
LIKELY SOUTH OF KMCK. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL/STRONG WINDS WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS...SO WILL NEED TO AMEND IF IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PARTICULAR
STORM WILL IMPACT A TERMINAL. COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MORE THAN VCTS AT KGLD AT THIS TIME.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR


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