Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 230907
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
307 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT.  UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH  THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING TROUGH ON
SATURDAY.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY. THIS LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

PLAN TO REMOVE MORNING POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO A LACK OF
FORCING. THE NAM SHOWS INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RH OVER CHEYENNE
AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO THIS MORNING. METARS IN THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE REPORTING STRATUS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.  THIS AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWARD
SO WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.  THE STRATUS IS SLOW TO
ERODE TODAY AND THEN REDEVELOPS AGAIN TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTIZED TO AFFECT THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE BORDER. CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR
FROM 30-40KTS COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. DYNAMICS
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT WHERE THERE WILL BE CHANCE POPS.

A DRY SLOT ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT POPS ACROSS THE FA AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH.  CONSEQUENTLY LOWERED POPS TO NIL IN THE
MORNING BUT KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH COMES THROUGH. CAPE FROM 1500 TO 2400 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 35KTS
IN THE EASTERNMOST FA SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS. POPS
DECREASE AFTER 06Z SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW SOON THE WAVE WILL IMPACT
EASTERN COLORADO SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  AS DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT, POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE
WEST.  THESE HIGHER POPS MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
DURING THE NIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES COOLER AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WARMER.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO STRATUS
LIMITING INSOLATION. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTH TOWARDS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CONUS FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER CANADA AND MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LOW. THIS AFFECTS
THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LOW STRATUS OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AM THINKING THE VERY LOW STRATUS
WILL MOVE OVER KGLD FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE
UP FROM THE SOUTH. KMCK WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE LOWER CEILINGS A
FEW HOURS AFTER KGLD. EXPECT THE LOWEST CEILING DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. AFTER THAT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS
TO LIFT SOME IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. THURSDAY EVENING
CEILINGS WILL AGAIN LOWER...REACHING IFR AT BOTH SITES BY
MIDNIGHT.

ASIDE FROM THE LOW CEILINGS FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF
KGLD. CURRENTLY AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG TO MOVE OVER THE SITE.

LLWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR BOTH SITES...COMING TO AN
END BY MID MORNING. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
THURSDAY EVENING...WOULD EXPECT LLWS TO RETURN TO BOTH SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JTL



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