Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 261332
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
732 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 732 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCT FOR LATEST OBS TREND. CURRENTLY...THE ENTIRE
TRI STATE REGION REMAINS UNDER A THICK VEIL OF LOW CLOUD...WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. AREAS OF FOG PERSIST ALONG WITH DRIZZLE...SO
PLAN ON KEEPING IN FORECAST FOR NOW AND WILL REVISIT FOR NEXT ESTF
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY/MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF COUNTRY WITH EXPECTED SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW NOW
STARTING TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. NATURE OF FLOW WHICH IN
SOME RESPECTS IS RETROGRESSING A LITTLE WOULD INDICATE THE
PATTERN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHANGE. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND STRATUS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS HANDLED THIS WELL THE GFS THE WORST AND TOO
STRONG. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE
DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO DEEP WITH THE NAM
THE WORST. OUTSIDE OF THIS THE NAM WAS NOT DOING TOO BAD. OVERALL
THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE
CANADIAN WERE DOING THE WORST. MODELS HAD SURFACE LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST TOO FAR NORTH. THE RUC AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE
MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
GFS...CANADIAN...SREF AND NAM DOING THE BEST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING STAYED
MOSTLY TO THE WEST. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEST NOT PAINTING/SUPPORTING A WET FORECAST WITH A
VERY DEEP DRY LAYER AND WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS AT 700 MB AT ITS
LOWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF DRY AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SUPPORTS A RATHER FAR SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW
WITH THE LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER ARIZONA.

NEW MODEL SUITE SUPPORTS WHAT THE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING. MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION HAS STAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ALL
NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG IN THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. DYNAMICS TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO
AFFECT MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE SOME DRYING ALOFT OCCUR AS
THE LIFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA
AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SHOULD HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER
THIS MORNING.

AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
PERSIST DURING THE MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH ELEVATED CAPE AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE
DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME. CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY THICK MOST OF THE DAY WITH MAYBE
SOME CLEARING IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION AS A LITTLE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN TO THERE. KEPT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH COOLEST
READINGS IN THE FAR WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NEED NOT GET OUT
OF THE 40S.

SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW GETS ORGANIZED AND IN A DECENT POSITION TO GIVE
THE AREA SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM EARLY EVENING TO NEAR
09Z AS THE BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE GETS IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THE
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION STARTS ITS GRADUAL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ITS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EXITING
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ONCE AGAIN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLEARING WILL ALSO
BEGIN WITH MOST OF THE NORTH HALF GETTING A LOT OF SUNSHINE BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NORTH THE WARMEST AS IT SEES THE MOST SUN.

LINGERING SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE IN THE EVENING.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT CLEARS...TEMPERATURES COULD GET QUITE
CHILLY WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AND NORTHERLY FLOW MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SUN. ONE THING THAT COULD SPOIL THAT WILL BE A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT THAT MOVES IN AND SPREADS SOME CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO INSTABILITY AND A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER. SO
IT SHOULD STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE BUT
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE PUSHES
FURTHER EAST. PRECIP CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE PAC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND SWRLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IS KEPT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHORTWAVES POSSIBLY
GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S. READINGS IN THE LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

FOR KGLD...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
SITE THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE...LIGHT
RAIN OR FOG WILL PREVAIL ALMOST THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

FOR KMCK...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HERE WILL DRY WITH TIME. LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE UNTIL 06Z. AT THAT
TIME...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER


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