Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 302008
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
208 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN SOME TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE NORTHWEST FA TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 200 TO 1000 J/KG AND SHEAR FROM 30 TO
35KTS.  THIS WILL SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING MAINLY ACROSS YUMA COUNTY COLORADO.  THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF STORMS DUE TO MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR THE EARLY
EVENING WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN THE LATE EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
A LULL FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING IN THE EASTERN FA.  POPS INCREASE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.  MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS... ECMWF... AND
CMC ARE ALL IN RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT UPON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF THE TROUGHS HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FALL. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE IS BECOMING A BIT MORE PERSISTENT UPON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT UPON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WITH THE GFS SENDING IT
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE ECMWF SENDING IT FURTHER
EAST OVER WESTERN KANSAS. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW
WITH AN ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH THE GFS BEING THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE MODEL AT THIS TIME. I AM STILL LEANING TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE PROJECTED STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE LOW OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. IF THE GFS SOLUTION WERE TO PLAY OUT
THEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD SET UP JUST WEST OF THE CWA WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION WERE
CORRECT WE WOULD SEE THE STORMS SET UP IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE ECMWF HAS
ALSO BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. IT IS
WORTH MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM DUE TO STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. SHEAR SEEMS TO DROP OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH. PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES FOR THE
TIME PERIOD WILL BE 0.80 TO 1.15 INCHES FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH COULD
LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM NEAR KGLD LATER THIS
EVENING BUT CIGS AND VIS SHOULD STAY ABOVE MVFR. GUSTY SOUTH WIND
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TML
AVIATION...FS



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