Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 160550
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1150 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THE CONVECTION FROM
EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS MOVED WELL NORTH OF THE TRI STATE REGION.
THE AREA STILL REMAINS PARTLY/MOSTLY CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR RW/TRW TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THRU THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED
MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINLY NORTH...ALONG
WITH MENTION OF FOG FOR ALL AREAS...MOST PRONE WILL BE THOSE THAT
SCATTER/CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AT 20Z DRYLINE CURRENTLY LOCATED
FROM NEAR KIRK COLORADO SOUTHEAST TO NEAR BURLINGTON TO KIT CARSON
COLORADO. MODELS AGREE THAT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION EXPECTED IN THIS
GENERAL AREA OR SLIGHTLY EAST ANYTIME NOW. FROM NOW THROUGH 00Z
SHOULD SEE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF BROKEN LINE OR LINE OF
STORMS REACHING A BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND OAKLEY LINE OR SLIGHTLY
WEST OF IT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. CANT
RULE OUT A TORNADO VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

AFTER 00Z GENERAL IDEA PER HRRR/NAM IS TO MOVE ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY
EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. BY
MIDNIGHT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO GRAHAM AND
NORTON COUNTIES EASTWARD. DURING THIS TIME STRONG AND POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALTHOUGH LARGE
HAIL CANT BE RULED OUT.

LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW 40S TO AROUND 50 EAST OF THE STATE LINE...MILDEST IN
NORTON AND HILL CITY.

THURSDAY...VARYING SOLUTIONS AS TO WHAT EXACTLY WILL HAPPEN BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS FOR THE MORNING HOURS TO BE GENERALLY VOID OF
PRECIPITATION GIVEN RATHER DRY MID LEVELS. NAM/GFS DO SHOW SOME LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING IN AND CANT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS. HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT AND I AM PROBABLY A BIT HIGH ON
MY POPS. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW 60S TO AROUND 70 EAST OF THE STATE LINE. IF THE NAM
VERIFIES WITH MORE EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...CONTINUING TO MONITOR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA PROGGED TO HAVE PWATS 1 INCH OR HIGHER BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE. QUASI STATIONARY FRONT...DRY LINE IN
OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...ALONG WITH OCCLUSION WILL LIKELY ACT AS MAIN
FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE BANDING OR OVERRUNNING OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO INCREASE...HOWEVER POSITION OF BETTER QPF STILL IN
QUESTION PAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/POSITION OF
THESE FEATURES. THERE IS ALSO A TREND TOWARDS DRY SLOT REDEVELOPING
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP MIDDAY.

REGARDING POP FORECAST TRENDS...I RAISED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT TO
CATEGORICAL ACCOUNTING FOR GOOD PRECIP SIGNAL AND BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY. OTHER CHANGE WAS TO SHOW DECREASING TREND FRI MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE DRY SLOT DEVELOPMENT. BEYOND THAT I TRIED TO
NOT TO MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT. I KEPT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH ON
TIMING/COVERAGE.

REGARDING QPF FORECAST TRENDS...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING IN GOOD PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWA...AND WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH OVERRUNNING I AM COMFORTABLE USING
AGGRESSIVE BLEND AND SHOWING HIGHER TRENDS. BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2" IN OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA SEEM REASONABLE...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN
CWA...HOWEVER AS OF NOW 36HR TOTALS OF 0.5 TO 1" STILL SEEM
REASONABLE.

REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL THURSDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT
OF CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH DRY SLOT THIS FAR NORTH AND POSITION OF
DRY LINE/SURFACE FRONT WE COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST KANSAS IN POTENTIAL MODERATE CAPE/HIGH SHEER
ENVIRONMENT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS INGREDIENTS COULD BE AS GOOD OR
BETTER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRANSITION EASTWARD
EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH BUILDING TROUGH OUT OF CANADA. NORTHERN H3
JET BECOMES ORIENTATED NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE A
TENDENCY TOWARDS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEAKENING AS THE SLIDE SOUTH. THERE IS NOT A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THESE FEATURES...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS ALSO TOO LOW
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE WITH BET
SIGNAL FOR THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERN JET STREAM FINALLY STARTS
TO MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH ALONG CLOSED UPPER
LOW BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

FOR KGLD...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SCT015 SCT250 GIVING WAY TO BKN012-015 FROM 08Z-16Z...THEN
BKN060-100. SCATTERED CONDITIONS COULD GIVE WAY TO 3SM IN FOG
FROM 08Z-12Z. VCSH/-SHRA POSSIBLE AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT TIMING UNCERTAINTY WILL ALLOW FOR A WAIT FOR
DEVELOPMENT TO PUT IN FORECAST. WINDS ENE 10-20KTS THRU
12Z...THEN NNE AROUND 10 KTS...VEERING TO THE SE 10-20KTS BY 22Z
THURSDAY. WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE 06Z-12Z...14050KTS.

FOR KMCK...A MIX OF CONDITIONS FROM VFR DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES WILL
OCCUR AS CEILINGS WILL GO FROM BKN200 TO BKN035 BY 08Z...THEN
MIXING FROM BKN003 UP TO BKN025 FROM 08Z INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. 3-6SM IN FOG POSSIBLE 08Z-19Z. VCSH/-SHRA POSSIBLE BEFORE
08Z AND AFTER 19Z. WINDS ENE 5-15KTS WITH WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL
FROM 06Z-11Z...14050KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JN


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