Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 230356
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
956 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

MODELS COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
FOG DEVELOPING OVER KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY THINKING VISIBILITIES OF A MILE
OR SO ARE LIKELY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY DROPPING CLOSE TO
A QUARTER MILE.

TOOK OUT THE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE EVENING SINCE THE STORMS
JUST WEST OF THE AREA HAVE DIED. STILL THINKING SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH
THE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA...WITH WEAK
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME IS UNDERCUTTING UPPER RIDGE WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERLY STORM TRACK. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT HAS
SLOWLY BEGUN THE PROCESS OF MOVING EAST WITH RADAR SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS
FEATURE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO.

THIS AFTERNOON TONIGHT...INITIAL CONCERN IS ON COVERAGE AND
PROGRESS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN COLORADO TOWARDS OUR CWA.
GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING INSTABILITY IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WHICH
COULD FAVOR THIS ACTIVITY MAKING AS FAR EAST AS THE CO/KS STATE
LINE. WHILE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO DAYTIME
HEATING...WAA OVERNIGHT AND NOSE OF LLJ COULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM LINGERING LATE THIS EVENING...OR SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES. MID LEVELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
MOIST AND DESPITE VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAP ABOVE THIS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY NON ELEVATED PARCELS. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE NEAR SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER THE PRECIP SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE MAY ACTUALLY BE
DRIZZLE/FOG.

THURSDAY...NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING
STRATUS/DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD
SUPPORT CLEARING SKIES FROM THE WEST WITH WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS
ADVERTISED ALONG WITH STRONGER LIFT. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
STRATUS CLEARING. HIGHS NEAR 70F (MAINLY IN THE WEST) ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE BEST CHANCE FOR CLEAR SKIES IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FLATTENS SOMEWHAT LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LEE SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THAT DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS GOOD SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT THAT
WILL BRING AMPLE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A RESULT

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE
4-CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE CENTROID OF THE TROUGH
MOVING OVER E CO/NW KS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE DRYER
AIR MOVES INTO THE WEST AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND FORMS A
CLOSED LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS FRIDAY EVENING. WITH
AN INSTABILITY AXIS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...IT IS POSSIBLE
THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS THAT WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER OVERNIGHT AS THEY MOVE FURTHER TO THE
EAST.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE EXITING TROUGH AS IT
LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION AND THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT STARTS TO
DEEPEN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE A LOW CENTER CONSOLIDATING AND
MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NEW MEXICO SUNDAY EVENING. THEN AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TO A GREATER DEGREE...THE LOW SLOWS AND
ENDS UP SOMEWHERE OVER E OKLAHOMA/E TEXAS BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A
BLOCKING HIGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED SATES. THAT RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DRYER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MID-WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SOME LLWS DEVELOPING. SINCE LLWS HAS DEVELOPED THE LAST TWO
NIGHTS...USED THE HEIGHT/SPEED FROM THOSE NIGHTS FOR THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE LATE TONIGHT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST FIRST FOR KGLD THEN KMCK. THE CEILINGS WILL LIFT
FOR BOTH SITES SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE TOMORROW
EVENING.

IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME FOG WEST OF KGLD PRIMARILY. AM ANTICIPATING
SOME MINIMAL VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR KGLD AT THIS TIME.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JTL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.