Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 270836
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
236 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE HOW FAST PRECIPITATION ENDS AND CLEARING
BEGINS TODAY AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...LOW
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
TUESDAY...AND HOW MUCH THE WARMUP WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH AMPLIFIED FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...ALL THE MODELS WERE CLOSE ON THE JET WITH THE NAM AND
THE ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS NOT TOO BAD
AT MID LEVELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET DOING THE BEST. THE
NAM WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN AND NAM ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...RAINFALL HAS ALREADY ENDED OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA AS THE LAST BAND OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WEST. THIS IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. MOST MODEL OUTPUT NO
MATTER HOW WELL IT IS CURRENTLY DOING ON THE POSITION OF THE
RAINFALL...ENDS THE RAINFALL BY 18Z. THE HRRR IS DOING THE BEST ON
ITS POSITION AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
HRRR...WILL LOWER THE POPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND HAVE
THEM END BY LATE IN THE MORNING. WILL END UP HAVING SOME KIND OF
FOG MENTION THROUGH MID MORNING DUE TO THE CLEARING...MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE WINDS.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY AND THERE IS A LOT DRIER AIR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID
LEVELS THAT WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA. SO AS THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAS SHOWN...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
SINCE IT CLEAR THE FIRST AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
GOING MAXES.

MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS...LIGHTER WINDS...AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAYS. MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST HALF WILL HAVE WET GROUND AND
THAT MAYBE COULD MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE AND WENT WITH THE
COOLEST GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF NORTHERN JET IS
APPROACHING DURING THE DAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED OR BE CLOSE TO BE AFFECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. NEW MODEL OUTPUT
KEEPS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL NORTH OF OUR AREA. THERE IS SOME
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
MOVING THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME AS THE JET LIFT.

THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING IN. GOOD
LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE AS WELL. SAME PROBLEM AS THE DAY SHIFT
POINTED OUT YESTERDAY...LACK OF MOISTURE/DEEP DRY LAYER...ARE
STILL IN PLACE. THERE IS ENOUGH THERE THAT CONTINUING THE
SPRINKLES THE DAY SHIFT PUT IN LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS STATED ABOVE THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE ANOTHER PRESSURE OR
COLD SURGE THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING. CURRENTLY THERE IS A FRONT TO THE NORTH WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING SO THIS DEFINITELY SEEMS REASONABLE. PLUS
CLOUD COVER MAY INCREASE IN THE FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY. SO
TEMPERED THE WARMUP AND TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
GUIDANCE.

ANOTHER WEAK WIND FIELD IS IN PLACE DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT
DOES LOOK LIKE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE/DRAINAGE WINDS DO DEVELOP IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. STILL THE SETUP IN PLACE WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH DOES IT WARM
UP AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/PLENTY OF SUN MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE THIS...STILL RATHER SHARP NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE.
SINCE THERE IS ALSO A LACK OF CROSS MOUNTAIN COMPONENT ON THE MID
LEVEL WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT A STRONG LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. IN
FACT...WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THE SURFACE WIND FIELD IS
ACTUALLY RESPONDING LIKE ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH
WITH AN UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD IN PLACE. SO BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON THE WARMING WITH THE NWP LOOKING A LITTLE WARM IN THIS
PATTERN. WENT CLOSER TO THE 2 METER AND BIAS ADJUSTMENT ON THE 850
MB TEMPERATURE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...OVERALL MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP EXIT OF
PRECIP WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH AXIS OF
SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND H5 TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVER THE CWA
CONDITIONS. WHILE I CONSIDERED HOLDING ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION 00-
03Z...WITH CURRENT TREND WITH GUIDANCE DRY I DECIDED TO KEEP THIS
OUT. CLEARING SKIES...LOW TD VALUES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COOL AIR
MASS WILL ALLOW FOR A FROST TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
ACTUALLY WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING MID TO UPPER 20 TDS IN THE WEST A
HARD FREEZE COULDNT BE RULED OUT. CLIMATOLOGICAL LAST HARD FREEZE IS
THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY...SO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON FROST/FREEZE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS GETTING CLOSE.

TUESDAY...SECONDARY H3 JET ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LIMITED. GFS IS MORE BULLISH ON PRODUCING LIGHT QPF ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
CURRENT NAM...THOUGH 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN LINE WITH A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN
PLACE...I DECIDED TO LIMIT MENTION TO SPRINKLES FOR NOW AS
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE IS NOT HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...H5 RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
(DEPENDING ON MODEL) AS TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. INITIALLY PATTERN WILL FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES MAY BEGIN TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COULD FAVOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
MEAN WIND FAVORING A PROGRESSION OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST TO
EAST. TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT
THIS RANGE...ALONG WITH POSITION OF SURFACE FEATURES THAT COULD
SERVE TO AID AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. I ADJUSTED
CONSENSUS 20/30 POPS TO FAVOR AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR NOW TO
REFLECT PERIOD OF PEAK INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

KGLD...MVFR CIGS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 15Z. WINDS FROM THE
EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS. FROM 16Z-22Z SOME CU BASED
AROUND 5K FT EXPECTED WITH CIRRUS OVERHEAD FROM AN UPPER LOW TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS GUSTING TOWARD 20KTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST. 23Z-02Z WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST NEAR 11KTS THEN
VARIABLE FROM 03Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 09Z CIGS JUST ABOVE VFR RANGE AND COULD DIP TO
MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS FROM
THE NORTHEAST A BIT OVER 5KTS. 10Z-17Z A FEW LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5KTS.
18Z-20Z GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20KTS EXPECTED FALLING TO 11KTS
AROUND 21Z THEN VARIABLE UNDER 5KTS FROM 03Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99



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