Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 241758
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1158 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE CHANCES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND...AND
HOW COOL TO MAKE IT ON SUNDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A MILDLY
AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH AMERICA.
SPLIT FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE WITH THE CANADIAN...NAM AND
GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING
SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THEY
TENDED TO HAVE FEATURES/LOWER HEIGHTS TOO FAR EAST. THE CANADIAN
AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. MODELS MAY NOT
BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS TO OUR WEST. THE RUC...NAM AND ECMWF LOOK
THE BEST AT THIS TIME. MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE WARM ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE GFS DOING THE BEST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR PROBLEM WILL BE THE EXTENT AND
LONGEVITY OF THE FOG AND STRATUS. MODELS LOOK TO DISSIPATE THE FOG
AND STRATUS BY LATE MORNING. SO THAT SEEMED REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WHEN AND WHERE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.STRONG
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVES JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
THE AREA NEAR 18Z. SURFACE/FRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO BE NEAR IF NOT
MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE LOOK TO HAVE MADE
IT ABOUT HALF THROUGH THE AREA. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...LIFT
FROM BOTH FEATURES LOOKS TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. BELIEVE
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TIED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH
POSITION. ALL IN ALL THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
IN THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF. SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS THE
PREVIOUS DAY BUT PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. LOOKS LIKE THAT EASTERN
HALF WILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.

TOUGH TO GAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND AN
UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD EVEN AFTER THE CLOUD COVER CLEARS. WENT
NEAR THE GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FRONT LOOKS TO
BACKDOOR FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE NEAR
THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. SOME LIFT AND
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FAR WEST. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE TRICKY. DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING MORE UPSLOPE...
MODELS SHOW THE TEMPERATURES WARMING UP FINE. WILL STAY NEAR TO
BELOW GUIDANCE.

MAIN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE DURING THE NIGHT.
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAIN
LIFT AND MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
LATER IN THE EVENING. ALSO MODELS SHOW STORM MOVEMENT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WHICH MEANS NOT MUCH PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST. KEPT THE
MENTION IN THE FAR WEST IN THE EVENING. LIFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE LEAST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR EAST. MODELS SHOWING PLENTY OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND CONSIDERING THE NEGATIVE TILTED NATURE OF
THE SHORTWAVE...KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM CUTTING
OFF FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. WEAK AND DEEP
UPSLOPE WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM IS GOING IS CONCERNING THAT
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY END UP FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
DID NOT CHANGE THE POPS MUCH AND KEPT THEM MOSTLY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. HOWEVER...DID LOWER THEM A LITTLE IN THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS CLOSELY.

DUE TO THE WEAK AND DEEP UPSLOPE AND THICK CLOUD COVER...CHOSE TO
COOL SUNDAY MAXES. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH.
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF UPSLOPE AND CLOUD COVER TENDED TO GO
CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ON MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
OF THE CWA BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND EXIT THE
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM FOR KMCK...A PESKY LAYER OF MVFR OVERCAST
SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE MY MID AFTERNOON.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORMS...ONLY PUT
VCTS MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE PRESENT
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS WHEN SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR BOTH KMCK AND KGLD OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...MK


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