Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 310727
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
127 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY
RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
IN NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FURTHER WEST
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND THERE IS A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY IN EASTERN AREAS WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL ALSO LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. STORMS WILL WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTH AND INSTABILITY WEAKENS. STRONGER FORCING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. EXPECT RAIN TO GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WEST OF HIGHWAY
25...WITH LESS CERTAINTY FOR A CHANGEOVER EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. EVEN
IN THE WEST...SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING AND RECENT WARMTH WILL KEEP THE GROUND WARM...BOTH OF
WHICH WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW. NONETHELESS...MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SLUSHY WET SNOW IN
THE WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN COOLER BY MID WEEK AND BECOME MORE ACTIVE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS PERSISTED
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND
IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH THAT SWEEPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING AGAIN BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. EASTERN COLORADO MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WHILE
AREAS EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER MAY SEE ONLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO
AN END.

A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES DURI8NG THE WEEKEND
FOR A RETURN OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WIND FIELD
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. AT THAT TIME...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER



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