Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 010532
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1132 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN SOME TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE NORTHWEST FA TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 200 TO 1000 J/KG AND SHEAR FROM 30 TO
35KTS.  THIS WILL SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING MAINLY ACROSS YUMA COUNTY COLORADO.  THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF STORMS DUE TO MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR THE EARLY
EVENING WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN THE LATE EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
A LULL FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING IN THE EASTERN FA.  POPS INCREASE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.  MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED LOOKS ACTIVE FOR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SAT AND SUN IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AFTER THAT THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

THIS WEEKEND LOOKS WARM WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE CO-KS BORDER.
A FEW STORMS WILL WORK EAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE FRIDAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SATURDAY LOOKING DRY. ON SUNDAY A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL OCCUR LATER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH LIFTING SLOWLY FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY TO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH TIME. ANY IMPACTS TO KGLD AND
KMCK WILL BE BRIEF...BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS DUE TO
HIGH BASES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF
COLORADO.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...024



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