Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 011725
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO
EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND BY 00Z BE NEARLY OUT
OF THE AREA. ON THEIR HEELS IS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE.
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE
AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING WHILE MOVING TO
THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE STATE
LINE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S EAST OF THE BORDER.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE IN A LULL
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHES FAR
EASTERN COLORADO TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY. THIS ONE ALSO MOVES
EAST PRODUCING PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE DECREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE AND THREAT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REBOUND
BACK INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW
TO MID 80S FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S EAST.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR SCENARIO TO SATURDAY AS WE APPEAR TO
BE IN A LULL BETWEEN SYSTEMS TIL LATE IN THE DAY WHEN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SLOWLY INCREASES. THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE
RESPONSIBLE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THIS ONE HAS A BIT MORE
PUNCH TO IT AND ONCE AGAIN A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID
70S TO LOW 80S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 80S TO AROUND 90 EAST
OF THE BORDER. HOTTEST READINGS IN THE MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL FORM ALONG THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF THIS LOW AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK. A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM ON MONDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST US AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
COLORADO ON TUESDAY. LOOKING AT THE 500MB AND 700MB HEIGHT FIELDS...
A NEGATIVE TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING AND AMPLIFY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. CAPE AND
OMEGA VALUES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
HOWEVER CAPE VALUES ARE RELATIVELY MODEST AT THIS POINT. SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS WELL. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW THE CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION... CONTINUING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY HIGH SHEAR... MARGINAL
CAPE AND DCAPE... AND HIGH PW VALUES WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN... SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST HOWEVER BRIEF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS MAINLY ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SHEAR BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ON WEDNESDAY.

EARLY INDICATIONS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES AS WE
HEAD INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO PUSH SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AT THIS POINT POP REMAINS IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
MODELS AT THIS TIME WITH THE GFS CONTINUING THE TREND OF BEING MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BOTH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND TROUGH STRENGTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATE...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON POSITION OF
SURFACE FRONT AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME
THERE WAS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE
TAF. I INCLUDED A VCSH AT KGLD AS BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL INDICATES
SCATTERED COVERAGE FROM THE WEST AND LESS COVERAGE IN THE
NORTHEAST NEAR KMCK. MODELS APPEAR TO BE OVERDONE REGARDING
INSTABILITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS UNCERTAIN WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLY FAVORED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DR



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