Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 010950
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
350 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN SOME TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE NORTHWEST FA TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 200 TO 1000 J/KG AND SHEAR FROM 30 TO
35KTS.  THIS WILL SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING MAINLY ACROSS YUMA COUNTY COLORADO.  THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF STORMS DUE TO MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR THE EARLY
EVENING WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN THE LATE EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
A LULL FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING IN THE EASTERN FA.  POPS INCREASE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.  MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL FORM ALONG THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF THIS LOW AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK. A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM ON MONDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST US AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
COLORADO ON TUESDAY. LOOKING AT THE 500MB AND 700MB HEIGHT FIELDS...
A NEGATIVE TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING AND AMPLIFY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. CAPE AND
OMEGA VALUES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
HOWEVER CAPE VALUES ARE RELATIVELY MODEST AT THIS POINT. SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS WELL. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW THE CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION... CONTINUING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY HIGH SHEAR... MARGINAL
CAPE AND DCAPE... AND HIGH PW VALUES WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN... SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST HOWEVER BRIEF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS MAINLY ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SHEAR BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ON WEDNESDAY.

EARLY INDICATIONS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES AS WE
HEAD INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO PUSH SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AT THIS POINT POP REMAINS IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
MODELS AT THIS TIME WITH THE GFS CONTINUING THE TREND OF BEING MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BOTH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND TROUGH STRENGTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH TIME. ANY IMPACTS TO KGLD AND
KMCK WILL BE BRIEF...BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS DUE TO
HIGH BASES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF
COLORADO.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TML
AVIATION...024



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