Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 191836
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1236 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AND SKIES BRIEFLY CLEAR
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THESE AREAS ALSO CLOSE TO RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF ASSOCIATED WEAK JET MAX ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. MOST MODELS PAINTING SOME LIGHT QPF IN THAT AREA...THE
ECMWF A NOTABLE EXCEPTION...SO WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS. DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...POINT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND WET BULB
FREEZING HEIGHTS WELL BELOW THRESHOLD FOR SNOW TO MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND. ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH SO NO
HAZARD WILL BE MENTIONED. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON WEDNESDAY.  FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A LARGER TROUGH FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY TO POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH
TO KEEP POPS ELEVATED IN FORECAST IN THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME SORT OF
PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT OF THE PASSING SYSTEM.  A SHORT DRY PERIOD
MAY RESULT ON SATURDAY DUE TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE RIDGE TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00Z TONIGHT WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE ROCKIES TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...024



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