Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 302324
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
524 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN SOME TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE NORTHWEST FA TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 200 TO 1000 J/KG AND SHEAR FROM 30 TO
35KTS.  THIS WILL SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING MAINLY ACROSS YUMA COUNTY COLORADO.  THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF STORMS DUE TO MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR THE EARLY
EVENING WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN THE LATE EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
A LULL FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING IN THE EASTERN FA.  POPS INCREASE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.  MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED LOOKS ACTIVE FOR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SAT AND SUN IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AFTER THAT THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

THIS WEEKEND LOOKS WARM WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE CO-KS BORDER.
A FEW STORMS WILL WORK EAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE FRIDAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SATURDAY LOOKING DRY. ON SUNDAY A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL OCCUR LATER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH LIFTING SLOWLY FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY TO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COMING OUT OF COLORADO
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING NOT THINKING THIS WILL BE MUCH OF AN AVIATION IMPACT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL SPECIFIC TAFS ATTM.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...024



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