Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221722
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1122 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT
EAST INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MISSOURI VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

PLAN TO CONTINUE NIL POPS FOR THE FA TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF
FORCING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER
THE RIDGE AND PROVIDE SOME FORCING OVER EASTERN COLORADO
TONIGHT. INITIALLY THERE IS ENOUGH CAPE IN THE EVENING FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE VALUES DECREASE OVERNIGHT SO PREDOMINANT TYPE
WILL BE SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD HANDLE THIS EVENT DUE
TO THE OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE AND FORCING. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SO WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE THERE WILL BE CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. POPS
WILL DECREASE IN THE EASTERN FA BEHIND THE EXITING MORNING
SHORTWAVE. GOOD DYNAMICS SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT MOISTURE IS BEST OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES (NORTH OF HIGHWAY
36). HIGHER CHANCE POPS WILL BE USED OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AND
LOWER CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THAT AREA. SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY
25 TO 35 ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES ARE AT 40KTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST
ZONES. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COMES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY WITH ITS
BEST DYNAMICS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE SHOWING A DRY SLOT
MOVING ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EASTERN ZONES TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE EAST
OF THE FA SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE EVENING AND THEN
DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A TROUGH
ENTERS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY. PRECIP CHANCE CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND MOVES EAST.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT AND IN THE 60S
THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN BEING
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS. WHILE KGLD HAS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SPREAD EAST OUT OF
COLORADO...CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS STILL TOO LOW FOR TAF
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT STRATUS AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT BY
09Z AT KGLD...TRANSITIONING EAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING BETTER CONSISTENCY I ADDED IFR CIG GROUP TO KGLD
TAF AFTER 09Z AND KEPT MENTION OF MVFR CIGS AT KMCK AFTER 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR



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