Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 180837
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
237 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING....CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHILE FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST WITH THE LAST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. AS WITH YESTERDAY MORNING DO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP...BURNING OFF BY THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY ON THRU THE EVENING HOURS...THE TRI STATE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RW/TRW WITH SEVERE
POTENTIAL AFTER 18Z. MUCH OF THE CWA HAS BEEN PUT UNDER SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE WX BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES...WHILE SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THIS ENTIRE COMPLEX WILL FINALLY
SHIFT THRU THE DAY...MOVING OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCE IN PLACEMENT OF SYSTEM BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT OVERALL
TREND IS MAINLY EAST OF AREA.

THIS MOVEMENT EASTWARD THRU THE DAY WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX MORE OVER EASTERN ZONES AS UPPER LOWS TREKS
EASTWARD. HAVE CONCENTRATED HIGHER POP TREND TOWARDS THAT AREA BASE
DON LOW TRACK LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE SLIGHT RISK TAG FOR
THE CWA...HAVE AGAIN PUT IN ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE AREA FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
NEAR/UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE AN INCH OR MORE RAINFALL...AS
SEEN OVER PAST COUPLE DAYS.

GOING INTO SUNDAY...REPRIEVE IN SIGHT FOR THE CWA AS PRECIP EXPECTED
TO WIND DOWN FROM THIS SYSTEM FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH EASTERN ZONES
SEEING HIGHEST POTENTIAL QPF FROM EXITING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP AND BURN OFF BY MID/LATE
MORNING. MODEL TREND LEANS TOWARD A LATE AFTERNOON END TO ANY
-RW. A SHORTWAVE DOES WORK OFF OF THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT PLACEMENT OF SURFACE RIDGE JUST EAST OF SHORTWAVE
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONFINED TO MAINLY EASTERN COLORADO ON
THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. GOING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
MONDAY MORNING DESPITE INTRO OF COOLER/DRY AIR BROUGHT ABOUT BY
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE NNW.

TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL TREND DOWN OVERALL WITH THE EXIT OF
CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIRMASS. LOOKING FOR HIGHS
TODAY TO MAINLY BE IN THE 60S...WARMEST WEST DUE TO LACK OF EARLY
CLOUDS WITH DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO AREA. 50S FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START OFF MAINLY IN THE U30S TO L40S
SAT NIGHT...THEN SHIFT DOWNWARD INTO THE U20S TO MID 30S...COLDEST
IN EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS INDICATE WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA...WHICH COULD SPARK SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO RETURN TO THE AREA
IS WHEN ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING JET LIFT.
SURFACE BASED CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG ARE PRESENT THROUGH
THE VERTICAL PROFILE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TRI STATE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
DIMINISHES ON FRIDAY ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...HOWEVER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KGLD FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS BEFORE STRATUS AND FOG (MVFR AT KGLD) (IFR/LIFR AT KMCK)
MOVE INTO THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE VFR BY MID MORNING
AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST. ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE LOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS



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