Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 161946
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
146 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO
BORDER TONIGHT THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PALMER DIVIDE FRIDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THIS MORNING FROM DENVER TO DODGE CITY
TO AMARILLO 145% TO 190% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GENERAL IDEA IS FOR ONE SPOKE OF ENERGY (CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA) TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL HELP PROMOTE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER SPOKE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOVING IN BEHIND IT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN
THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TOWARD SUNRISE BUT WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SEE DRIZZLE AND PLENTY OF
FOG. WITH ALL THE RECENT AND EXPECTED RAINFALL DENSE FOG CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS AS TO WHERE THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SET UP. FOR NOW FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH FAVOR NEARLY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
AREA WHERE DRIER AIR REMAINS.

ABOVE/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN FRIDAY
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY SLOT WILL WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION AND PERHAPS SOME CLEARING AS FAR NORTH
AS THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE. WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER LIMITED ON
SATURDAY...BUT WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER COLD POOL DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES OUT. IT WILL BE VERY
WINDY ON SUNDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH IN THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WEAK VORTICITY LOBE
ROTATING OUT OF COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF A WRAY TO GOVE
LINE. QPF LOOKS RATHER LIGHT SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALL THE WAY TO
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS
THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING IN FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN TIME OF YEAR CANNOT RULE OUT
A LOW END SEVERE THREAT EITHER DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

MESSY TAF FORECAST FOR BOTH TERMINALS AND LIKELIHOOD OF AMENDMENTS
RATHER HIGH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KGLD...LIFR CONDITIONS FROM TAF ISSUANCE 19Z OR 20Z BEFORE CIGS
EXPECTED TO RISE TO MVFR CATEGORY. CIGS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO
IFR/VLIFR RANGE AFTER 10Z. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST OR
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KTS. MAY SEE ONE ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN A BREAK TIL
ROUGHLY 02Z OR SO WHEN ANOTHER ROUND MOVES IN AND IMPACTS THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 09Z. AFTER 10Z DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LATER MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LEAVING THE TERMINAL UNDER
STRATUS AND DRIZZLE/FG WITH VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY DOWN TO 1/4
MILE.

KMCK...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 20Z OR SO
BEFORE CIGS RISE TO MVFR CATEGORY. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE CIGS LOWER SLOWLY INTO IFR CATEGORY THROUGH 07Z. CIGS
FURTHER LOWER INTO VLIFR CATEGORY FROM 08Z THROUGH REST OF TAF
PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST 10-15KTS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEST IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NEXT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN ROUGHLY AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99


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