Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 150557
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1157 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 827 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
IMPROVING. ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST REGARDING THE FOG POTENTIAL
FOR TONIGHT/WED. MORNING. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PART OF
THE AREA FOR FOG WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH HALF. VISIBILITIES OF A
HALF MILE ARE VERY LIKELY FROM SEIBERT TO ALMOST COLBY AND SOUTH
AROUND SUNRISE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF VISIBILITIES DROPPED TO
A QUARTER MILE DUE TO THE DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THE FOG WILL CLEAR THE DURING THE MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

TONIGHT...BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER UNDER LOW LEVEL JET.
THESE WINDS WILL BRING IN ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND IF
THE NAM VERIFIES DENSE FOG. HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND
WILL RE-EVALUATE WHETHER OR NOT STRONGER FOG WORDING NEEDED. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS. THE
EXPECTED SCENARIO HAS SIMILARITIES TO OUR APRIL 2 SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT A FEW WEEKS AGO.

BY 18Z SFC LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH NORTH
WINDS REACHING THE PALMER DIVIDE. WARM FRONT EXPECTED FROM NEAR
FLAGLER TO CHEYENNE WELLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT AND
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF IT. BY 21Z NAM/4KM WRF SHOWING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEST OF A LINE
FROM WRAY TO GOODLAND AND MARIENTHAL. BETTER CHANCE PROBABLY FROM
NEAR FLAGLER TO CHEYENNE WELLS AND WEST OF TRIBUNE WHERE CAPE AXIS
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED. FOR THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS (6 PM CDT) NAM/4K WRF GENERATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
YUMA AND WRAY COLORADO SOUTHEAST THROUGH GOODLAND AND LEOTI. VERY
STRONG 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ARE JUST WEST OF KIT CARSON AND
CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF COLORADO SUGGESTING RATHER STRONG WINDS NOT FAR
AWAY FROM MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL BUT THE MAIN THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST POSSIBLY CREATING NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S LOW
70S...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE AND LEOTI AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. LEANED HEAVILY ON A CANADIAN/EUROPEAN BLEND FOR THIS
UPCOMING SYSTEM AS THESE TWO PIECES OF GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN MOST
CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK/TIMING OF THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LOW. GEFS
ENSEMBLES ALSO CONFIRM THIS SCENARIO WITH MANY MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH CANADIAN/EUROPEAN UPPER LOW MOVEMENT. THIS BLEND SEEMS TO BE
THE CONSENSUS BETWEEN NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND WPC AS WELL. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARMER WITH THIS GUIDANCE SO LIMITED
SNOW CHANCES PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO EAST COLORADO. EITHER
WAY...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN A LARGER PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH
WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINS POSSIBLE.

BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG/SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING
THE MAIN THREAT FURTHER INTO THE EVENING. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL FROM
MORE OF AN ISOLATED/SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE TO A LINEAR/SQUALL LINE
ORIENTATION. BEHIND THE STORMS...A COLD FRONT RUSHES SOUTH AND WITH
SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES...STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS
SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO WINDS THAT PASSED THROUGH APRIL 12TH. BLOWING
DUST MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WAS UNSURE OF FAVORED AREAS AS THIS THREAT
HIGHLY DEPENDS ON RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR MOVES IN
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE MAY OBSERVE A CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

RAIN CHANCES PERSIST THURSDAY AND ARE ACTUALLY HIGHEST FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CREEPS EAST AND BEST
LIFT SHOULD BE SITUATED OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION...HIGHEST MOISTURE
CONTENT FROM THE GULF SHOULD ARRIVE AT A SIMILAR TIME. GUIDANCE
INDICATES DECENT/PERSISTENT INSTABILITY SO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY. THIS HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO BE A
GOOD...WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN SINCE THE LAST ONE RECEIVED IN
DECEMBER. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM
1 TO 2 INCHES.

AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST...RAINFALL CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 IS POSSIBLE IF MORE AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. BEYOND SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DISAGREE ON TIMING/LOCATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE 6Z TAFS. KGLD RADAR
DETECTED STRONG LLWS. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS...CAN NOT FIND WINDS
AS STRONG AS DETECTED BUT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND PROFILE REMAINS THE
SAME UNTIL THE MORNING SO WILL KEEP THE LLWS GOING INTO THE
MORNING. ALSO PLACED A LLWS MENTION FOR KMCK BASED ON WIND
PROFILE IN SOUNDINGS. IT MAY BE UNDERDONE BUT WANT TO ATLEAST
PLACE A MENTION OF IT IN THE TAF.

OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS FOR KGLD WILL DEGRADE AS HIGHER DEW POINTS
MOVE IN. AM NOT EXPECTING VISIBILITIES TO REALLY DROP AROUND
SUNRISE...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THAT HAPPENED FOR LESS
THAN AN HOUR. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEGINNING AROUND
15Z AS TEMPERATURES WARM. FOR KMCK LATEST DATA SHOWS THE LOW
STRATUS REMAINING AWAY FROM SITE...ALTHOUGH A SCATTERED DECK
AROUND 1K FT. MAY DEVELOP AROUND 12Z FOR A FEW HOURS.

DURING THE AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KGLD
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND HIGH WIND GUSTS
ALONG WITH BLOWING DUST. STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BECOMING LESS INTENSE BY THAT TIME
HOWEVER.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DDT
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JTL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.