Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 011124
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
524 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AFTER 21Z. UP TO 2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
AROUND 25KTS WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF RAPIDLY TO THE WEST
WHERE THERE IS A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A HIGH BASED STORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL END BY
06Z...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

SECOND AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN ON THURSDAY AND OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT.
RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE DURING
THE DAY AND SPREAD EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR AMOUNTS WHICH SHOWS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WET SNOW
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH UP TO 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN EASTERN COLORADO. CONFIDENCE IN 6 INCH AMOUNTS LESS
THAN 50 PERCENT AT THIS TIME SO DID NOT ISSUE A WATCH. LIMITING
FACTORS INCLUDE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES DUE TO RECENT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME INITIAL MELTING AND
LACK OF A CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM. SOME BLOWING SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE
THURSDAY EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE SURGING COLD FRONT.

SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY MOVES IN AFTER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WITH SNOW ENDING AND ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN AN
INCH. SHOULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUN ON FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY. A
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER DUE TO A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TODAY RESULTING
IN SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
GUSTS TO 25KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT IN THE
AREA AND WEAK UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED AT 10KFT SUGGESTING
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE DRY MICROBURSTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
     MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ027-028-041-042.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COZ254.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...024


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.