Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 012023
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
223 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

UPDATED THE RAIN FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO
PUSH THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE
FURTHER EAST TO THE EAST HALF OF NORTON/GRAHAM COUNTIES. STILL
SOME QUESTION IF STORMS WILL ACTUALLY FIRE OVER THOSE COUNTIES OR
WAIT TO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND FIRE FURTHER EAST AS THE DRY LINE
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT/LOW
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE DRY LINE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OVER THOSE COUNTIES...DECIDED TO JUST NUDGE THE HIGHER
RAINFALL CHANCES EAST INSTEAD OF REMOVING THEM.

THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH. ANTICIPATE THESE STORMS TO
QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF NORTON/GRAHAM COUNTIES ONCE THEY DEVELOP.

A SECOND AREA OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE DRY LINE AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LIFT
QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SECOND TROUGH...BUT THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS
HAS THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS/STRONGEST LIFT OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA...SO PLACED THE HIGHER CHANCES THERE.

DURING THE EVENING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND IT RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END.
CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SEEMS TO FILL SOME...WITH
THE BETTER LIFT MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST CAUSING CHANCES FOR RAIN
OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE AREA TO DIMINISH DESPITE THE
TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

IN THE PROCESS OF UPDATING THE FORECAST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. FIRST
CHANGE HAS BEEN TO INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
GUSTING IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE THE WINDS
TO DECLINE SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON...ONLY GUSTING TO AROUND
30MPH.

WILL BE GETTING TO RAINFALL CHANCES IN A BIT. BEST LOCATION FOR
SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE EAST OF HWY 283...WITH WEAKER STORMS
EXPECTED TO THE WEST.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND QUICKLY
INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...GUSTING
UP TO 30 MPH. IN THE EVENING WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE...WITH
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DECLINING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH...ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD...HOWEVER A SECONDARY
FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL BEAR WATCHING AS
THE FRONT MOVES IN. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE IF THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE QUICK ENOUGH TO REDUCE THE RISK OF RAPID
FIRE GROWTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AFTER 21Z. UP TO 2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
AROUND 25KTS WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF RAPIDLY TO THE WEST
WHERE THERE IS A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A HIGH BASED STORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL END BY
06Z...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

SECOND AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN ON THURSDAY AND OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT.
RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE DURING
THE DAY AND SPREAD EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR AMOUNTS WHICH SHOWS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WET SNOW
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH UP TO 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN EASTERN COLORADO. CONFIDENCE IN 6 INCH AMOUNTS LESS
THAN 50 PERCENT AT THIS TIME SO DID NOT ISSUE A WATCH. LIMITING
FACTORS INCLUDE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES DUE TO RECENT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME INITIAL MELTING AND
LACK OF A CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM. SOME BLOWING SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE
THURSDAY EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE SURGING COLD FRONT.

SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY MOVES IN AFTER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WITH SNOW ENDING AND ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN AN
INCH. SHOULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUN ON FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANSITION OF
FRONT THRU THE FORECAST AREA CLEARING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS
REGION FRIDAY ON INTO NEXT MONDAY...WITH MODELS BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT INTO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE FROPA SET TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SLOW
TRANSITION TO COLDER AIR EXPECTED DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE INTO REGION FROM THE N AND W...ALONG WITH MORE OF
EAST/WEST MOVEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT. WITH THE SLOW TRANSITION OF THE
COLDER AIR FROM THE N/NW...DO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS LIGHT
RAIN WITH A TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE
MID 30S. TIMING OF COLD AIR ARRIVAL WILL NOT COINCIDE WELL WITH
MOVEMENT OF PRECIP ALONG FRONT. AS A RESULT WILL HAVE BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY SNOW ACCUM TO OCCUR MAINLY FROM THE CO/KS BORDER ON
WESTWARD. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN OVERNIGHT...E/NE
OROGRAPHIC/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OCCUR INCREASING CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW ACCUM OVER EASTERN COLORADO. IN THESE AREAS...EXPECTING AT MOST
1-2 INCHES OF ACCUM...WITH MUCH LESS AS YOU TRAVEL EASTWARD WHERE
TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM. REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
BUT GROUND TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM TO ALLOW FOR MUCH ACCUM.
TRANSITION LOOKS TO OCCUR CLOSE TO 06Z FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN ENSUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CWA
FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEK. THE COOLER AIRMASS OVER
AREA ON FRIDAY WILL TREND UPWARDS TO ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS
SAT/SUN/MON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS DURING THIS TIME TO RANGE IN THE
MID 60S THRU THE MID 70S...WARMEST ON MONDAY.

FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TUESDAY...SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING
THE DAY WITH ITS PARENT LOW...SO HAVE MENTIONED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR -RW. WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES...AND LEE-
SIDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE ALONG WITH SURFACE RIDGE TO
OUR EAST... MODELS DO INDICATE A CHANCE FOR -RW TO DEVELOP MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT -TRW MENTION IN SW ZONES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPS
TREND DOWN FROM THE 65-72F RANGE TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR -RW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAFS. THERE WILL BE TWO ITEMS OF
CONCERN.  THE FIRST BEING THE TIMING OF STORMS AND THE SECOND
BEING TIMING WHEN THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH.

DID A PATCHWORK FORECAST FOR THE WINDS SINCE NO ONE MODEL SEEMED
TO HAVE A GOOD GRASP ON HOW FAST THE NORTH WINDS WOULD MOVE IN AND
HOW STRONG THEY WOULD BECOME. DO EXPECT THE WINDS TO QUICKLY
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THEN INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE
EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE WINDS WILL DECLINE.

REGARDING STORMS...AM THINKING STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THEN ENDING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH SHOULD NOT AFFECT KMCK BY THE TIME THE STORMS DO GET
THERE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ027-028-041-042.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ254.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JTL


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