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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
925 AM MST TUE NOV 24 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND OFFICE HAS RECENTLY
IMPLEMENTED LONG RANGE AHPS RIVER OUTLOOKS FOR SOME OF ITS FORECAST
LOCATIONS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED MONTHLY BETWEEN THE THIRD AND
FOURTH THURSDAYS. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IN ADDITION TO THE 3
DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE
IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
A BRIEF EXPLANATION OF THE METHODOLOGY USED IN CREATING THESE
FORECASTS IS GIVEN BELOW THE TABLE.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID NOVEMBER 29, 2009 - FEBRUARY 27, 2010
LOCATION FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
HACKBERRY CREEK
GOVE 19.0 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 7.5
NORTH FORK SOLOMON RIVER
LENORA 10.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.3
SMOKY HILL RIVER
22 S OAKLEY 9.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.5 5.6
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS).
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED TOWARD THE END
OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=GLD FOR
MORE WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC
RIVER OUTLOOKS.
$$
