Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 191358
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
958 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

HUDSON BAY HIGH IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND ALLOWING THE DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SLIDE INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON, IS THE TIMING OF
THE RAIN START OR IF THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER.
BESIDES SLOWING THE RAIN START, THE DRY AIR COULD ALSO CAUSE AN
EXTENDED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. HOWEVER, WITH THE CLOUDS
INCREASING, AND THE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE GOING FORECAST. WILL PROBABLY UPDATE THIS DISCUSSION
AROUND 1PM TO TALK ABOUT TIMING THEN AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NE OF MICHIGAN REMAINS FIRMLY IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
STILL OVERHEAD. HIGH CLOUD SHIELD ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF INCREASING
MOISTURE HAS REACHED SRN LWR MICHIGAN...WELL NORTH OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE INTO LWR MICHIGAN TONIGHT...REACHING SAGINAW
BAY AND NE LWR MICHIGAN BY 12Z MONDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN THEN CONTINUING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG 700-500 MB LEVEL OMEGA LIFT INTO THE AREA
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE ONLY REAL CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER GIVEN RECENT PERSISTENT DRY
CONDITIONS PRIOR TO GREEN UP. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NW LWR MICHIGAN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/RH BEGINS TO INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...
E/SE SURFACE WINDS WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TODAY UPON COMMENCEMENT
OF DAYTIME MIXING...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED. GIVEN THE
GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES (ESPECIALLY EARLY AFTERNOON)...WILL
AGAIN MENTION THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE HWO AND FWF THRU MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING RH VALUES AND DEVELOPING PRECIP BRINGS A
CLOSE TO OUR DRY SPELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: NO SURPRISES WITH LATEST AND
GREATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS...WITH ROCK STEADY INTRA/INTER MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT...AND SUBSEQUENT SLOW
MOVEMENT...OF DEEP CLOSED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN LAKES
THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ATTENDANT COLD CORE ANOMALIES/STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND ENERGY PINWHEELING AROUND PARENT SYSTEM WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...WHICH AT TIMES
WILL NOT BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY. TRENDS LOOK DRIER BY LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WITH STILL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: NO CHANGE FROM EARLIER...WITH
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE/AND TYPE CONCERNS
DOMINATING MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: AMPLIFICATION PROCESSES KICKS INTO OVERDRIVE TO START THE
WEEK AS STRONG NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SUNDAY NIGHT`S WIDESPREAD RAIN PRODUCING SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE LOOKS TO EXIT NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA MONDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY REMNANTS OF CURRENT WESTERN KANSAS
SHORTWAVE AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. STILL SOME QUESTION WITH LOCATION OF BETTER FORCING WITH
THIS LATTER FEATURE...BUT EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS A PRETTY
SAFE BET.

MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT WEATHER DOMINATED BY THAT DEEPENING AND
INCREASINGLY CLOSED OFF UPPER/MID LEVEL LOW AS IT SLOWLY MEANDERS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN LAKES. HINTS MUCH OF THE AREA ACTUALLY MIGHT
CATCH A BREAK MONDAY NIGHT...WAITING FOR DEEPER "WRAP AROUND"
MOISTURE TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. H8
TEMPERATURES FALLING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARGUES ANY SURFACE BASED MELTING LAYER TUESDAY COULD BE
QUICKLY OVERCOME...SUPPORTING PRIMARILY SNOW SHOWERS WHEN
PRECIPITATION FALLS HEAVIEST. THIS SHOULD ESPECIALLY BE TRUE FAR
NORTH AND ACROSS INTERIOR HIGHER LOCALES. MELTING LAYER IS LOST FOR
MOST TUESDAY NIGHT...SUGGESTING MAINLY SNOW. PRECIP LOOKS
SHOWERY...DRIVEN IN LARGE PART FROM DIURNAL TRENDS AND PASSING MID
LEVEL SUPPORT. COULD SEE SOME ENHANCED FOCUS INTO NORTHWEST LOWER
WITH PERSISTENT MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUPPOSE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...BUT
DEFINITELY NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

REALLY NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
CHANGE EXPECTED TO START THIS PERIOD...WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT AND
PASSING WAVES SUPPORTING MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. REALLY HATE TO SAY THIS...BUT EVEN HINTS OVERHEAD AIR MAY
BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME MARGINAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT...
ESPECIALLY NOW WITH MOSTLY ICE-FREE CONDITIONS. SHOULDN`T BE TOO BIG
A DEAL IF THIS DOES OCCUR...AND PER LATE SPRING USUAL..."MOST" WOULD
OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN DIURNAL DISRUPTION IS MINIMIZED.

WHILE DETAILS ARE ELUDING WITH RESPECT TO JUST HOW FAST SYSTEM
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...CANNOT FIND A COMPELLING REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM INHERITED DRY FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
DEFINITELY PLAUSIBLE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
ADDITIONAL WAVES/ATTENDANT SHOWERS TO PASS OVERHEAD. STILL HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH HOW THIS ALL UNFOLDS. EITHER WAY...COOL
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE SO EASILY SCOURED OUT...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...LOWER AND THICKEN TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE LIFT NORTHWARD INTO INTO
LWR MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA THRU TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW CENTER LIFTS N/NE THRU THE THUMB AREA. LLWS WILL
HANG ON EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL SURFACE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15
TO 25 KTS ONCE DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE INTO MICHIGAN TONIGHT...PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NEARSHORE AREA. STRENGTHENING
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF OUR NEARSHORE AREA...WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE FROM MANISTEE TO THE BRIDGE...WHICH SHOULD FALL
JUST SHORT OF SCA CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR



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