Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 040747
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
347 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A NON-SVR
T-STORM TODAY.

THE ARRIVING MCS HAS DECAYED AT AN ALARMING RATE...AND THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR DESIRED RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE FADING OUT WITH IT.
BUT NOT ENTIRELY. A PAIR OF WELL-DEFINED MCV/S ARE ADVANCING EAST
OUT OF WI. THESE ARE MAINTAINING PRECIP (LIGHT PRECIP...BUT STILL
PRECIP) E AND NE OF GRB...AND GENERATING NEW CONVECTION NEAR
PENTWATER/LUDINGTON...MOVING NE.

THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL END OUR PRECIP THREAT IS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI AND CENTRAL WI. THIS FRONT WILL
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD MIDDAY...SETTLING JUST SOUTH OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. A TRAILING SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL NEAR EASTERN
UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY TO BE SQUELCHED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST INTO UPPER MI. ONGOING PRECIP IS THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN.

TODAY...WE ACTUALLY HAVE SOME DYNAMICS ENTERING THE REGION IN THE
FORM OF THE MCV/S. CURRENT EXPECTATION (HOPE?) IS THAT THIS WILL
BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...
GENERATING SOME SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LIKELY POPS STILL SEEM IN
ORDER HERE...DESPITE THE DISAPPOINTING NATURE OF THE EVENT THUS
FAR. GIVEN THE ONCOMING COLD FRONT...PRECIP SHOULD BE LARGELY
DONE NW OF A TVC-ROGERS LINE BY LATE MORNING...AND WILL LINGER
INTO MID-AFTERNOON ONLY SE OF AN HTL-APN LINE. THUNDER WILL NOT
BE COMMON...AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WANE.

WE DRY OUT DRASTICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SAT IMAGES AGREE
WITH MODEL DATA IN PORTRAYING LITTLE CLOUD COVER TO OUR W/WNW
BEHIND ONGOING CLOUDS/PRECIP. BUT WITH MOISTENED GROUND AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT FEEDING IN (850MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM
11C TO 6C TODAY)...WILL PROBABLY SPROUT A BIT OF CU ONCE THE SUN
COMES OUT IN EARNEST LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT...FRONT CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTH...AND PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL REACH DOWN TOWARD CENTRAL LOWER MI IN THE EVENING. THERE IS
WILL STALL...AS DEEP CONVECTION RAMPS UP NEAR THE STALLING FRONT IN
PARTS OF IOWA/NORTHERN IL/PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN WI. THAT WILL SEND
DEBRIS CLOUDS INTO FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER UPPER MI
WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR...QUIET...AND SHARPLY COOLER WX. MIN
TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS...PRETTY CLOSE TO
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDER CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM...WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SUCH RESPONSIBLE FOR TONIGHT`S VERY WELCOMED
RAIN (WELL...AT LEAST FOR SOME LUCKY AREAS). PATTERN SET TO GO
THROUGH QUITE THE BIT OF AMPLIFICATION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK.
DEEP TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL REALLY HELP
KICK THIS AMPLIFICATION INTO OVERDRIVE AS IT DIGS INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DOWNSTREAM SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
WILL BUILD NORTH INTO OUR AREA IN RESPONSE...LIKELY RESULTING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY SUMMER WARMTH BY THURSDAY. REAL UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS CENTERED ON ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES...WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS
ALL SUPPORTING BEST RAIN POTENTIAL REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING MID AND LATE WEEK
RAIN CHANCES.

DETAILS: AFTER SOME RECENT UNCERTAINTY...SUPPORT IS GROWING THAT
TODAY`S PASSING COLD FRONT WILL STALL FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP
NORTHERN MICHIGAN DRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. UPSTREAM WAA
INTENSIFIES HEADING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS PATTERN
AMPLIFICATION BEGINS. APPEARS BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION/FORCED ASCENT
ON NOSE OF SOUTH/NORTH DIRECTED LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR
WEST...WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT ROTATE INTO OUR AREA DECAYING AS THEY
RUN INTO AMPLIFYING OVERHEAD RIDGING. PATTERN RECOGNITION OF
ANTICIPATED TROUGH/RIDGE PLACEMENT DEFINITELY SUPPORTS THIS DRIER
SCENARIO...AND STARTING TO WONDER WHAT SHOWERS SURVIVE WILL RESULT
IN NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES...AND THAT MAINLY FOR WESTERN AREAS.
NOTICED PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TO THIS LESS AGGRESSIVE SCENARIO.
WILL MAKE FEW ADJUSTMENTS...ALTHOUGH BASED OFF FULL PERUSAL OF 00Z
GUIDANCE TRENDS...WILL TOSS AROUND THE IDEA OF REMOVING POPS
COMPLETELY WEDNESDAY. NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS...APPEARS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LARGELY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): EARLY SUMMER WARMTH ARRIVES
THURSDAY...WITH SLOWLY STRENGTHENING SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT PROPELLING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. THERMAL PROGS EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70 FOR INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER (80?) WITH JUST SLIGHTLY
COOLER READINGS NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE AND NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
MUCH LIKE WEDNESDAY...ALL REAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST. NOTICE SOME GUIDANCE TRYING TO DEVELOP
AFTERNOON HEAT DRIVEN SHOWERS...BUT THOSE APPEARED TIED TO
UNREALISTICALLY HIGH DEW POINTS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES HEADING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS LEAD WAVE EJECTING OUT OF
WESTERN TROUGH ROTATES UP ALONG NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING. UNCERTAINTY REALLY MORE OF A TIMING ISSUE WITH ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY...WITH A SLOWER SCENARIO (DEFINITELY SUPPORTED BY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN) ALLOWING HIGHS TO PUSH 80 DEGREES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
MAINTENANCE OF EASTERN RIDGE/WESTERN TROUGH SUGGESTING A STALLING
BAROCLINIC AXIS NEAR/OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. PLACEMENT OF
SUCH...AS WELL AS TIMING OF ADDITIONAL WESTERN WAVES...WILL HAVE
PLENTY TO SAY ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. GOTTA
FEELING GUIDANCE WILL STRUGGLE WITH THIS PERIOD FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS YET. GIVEN SUCH...SIMPLY FORCED TO RUN WITH A GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BLEND FOR STARTERS...FEATURING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM LATE WEEK HIGHS. DEFINITELY EXPECT MANY CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

PERIODS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING IN SHRA...THEN VFR.

LINE OF SHRA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING WI/UPPER MI WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS INSTABILITY IS LOST. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS STILL
EXPECTED AT TIMES...BUT THUNDER IS WANING FAST. MUCH DRIER AIR
ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

CURRENT SW WINDS WILL VEER NW TO N THIS AFTERNOON. LLWS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH STRONG SW WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

PRESENT SW WINDS WILL VEER NW AND INCREASE A BIT...AS A COLD FRONT
GOES. WINDS/WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...THOUGH THINGS WILL GET A LITTLE CHOPPY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR ROGERS CITY/PRESQUE ISLE LT. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER UPPER
MI TONIGHT...WITH DECREASING WINDS/WAVES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ


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