Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 202004
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
405 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE NERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND A 983MB SFC LOW JUST E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE FANTASTIC UPPER
PENINSULA...WHILE RAIN SHOWER ARE OCCURING FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
OVER ERN WI AND WRN LOWER MI. THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP ON THE SW SIDE
OF THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING BEFORE DRY AIR
SHIFTS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT ALL RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS COOLER WINDS ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER ERN WI...LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE/SHORTWAVE FORCED
RAIN AND SNOW ALSO BEING FORCED BY A SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPS AND 2M TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 30S.
SHOWERS WILL TURN TO ALL RAIN AS SFC TEMPS WARM LATE TUE MORNING
INTO TUE AFTERNOON. USED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FROM THE NAM TO
DELINEATE RAIN/SNOW/MIX. HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM MON APR 20 2015

THE PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TOWARD SRN QUEBEC. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUE NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE
AREA WILL HELP ENHANCE THE PCPN. EXPECT THE HIGHS POPS/COVERAGE FOR
LOCATIONS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE WNW FLOW. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION AND 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM AROUND -4C TO
-8C...THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE CWA FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE TEMPS FALLING OFF TO NEAR 30...SOME WET
SNOW/SLUSH MAY ALSO ACCUMULATE ON SOME ROADS.

WED-THU...THE LARGE COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
ESE TO THE ERN LAKES BY LATE THU. COLD AIR ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME
HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN
THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION FAVORS AT LEAST SCT SHOWERY
PCPN... MOSTLY AS SNOW BUT POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN OVER OVER THE
SE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE
CONTRIBUTION AS 850 MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -9C TO -12C...THE BEST
COVERAGE DURING THE DAYTIME SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING WILL BE STRONGEST WITH STEEP SFC-700 MB
LAPSE RATES 700 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -18C WED WILL ONLY MODERATE TO
NEAR -14C THU. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

FRI-MON...FCST UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER AS THE GFS/GEFS/GEM MAINTAIN
TROUGHING INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A RIDGE TOWARD THE WRN LAKES WITH DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. WITH EITHER SCENARIO...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW(GFS/GEFS)OR NO(ECMWF) PCPN CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL THEN DETERIORATE TUE
MORNING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE MOVES IN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. EXACT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
ON TUE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO PULL NORTH OF
MICHIGAN...SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND BIGGEST
WAVES FROM THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JIT
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JIT
MARINE...JIT



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