Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 181050
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
650 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN WILL BE
REINFORCED TODAY BEHIND THE SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED
BOUNDARY PASSING THRU NRN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL STAY NORTH OF MICHIGAN. EXPECT
ANOTHER SUNNY...DRY AND MILD DAY TODAY...AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. N/NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10
MPH THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING COMMENCES. THE ONLY REAL CONCERN
FOR TODAY IS THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER GIVEN PERSISTENT DRY
CONDITIONS PRIOR TO GREEN UP...DESPITE THE FACT THAT BOTH TEMPS AND
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE HWO AND FWF.

HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES HOLD ON INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER
SUNDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 30S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CURRENT PATTERN SUPPORTING
SOME IMPRESSIVELY NICE NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER ABOUT TO GO THROUGH
SOME ABRUPT CHANGES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERABLY DEEP
LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NOAM...WITH OUR WEATHER
BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WELL AGREED UPON
DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WORK
WEEK. DEVELOPMENT OF SUCH REALLY A TWO PART PROCESS...WITH CURRENT
SHOWER/STORM PRODUCING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY RACING NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY (BRINGING A MUCH...MUCH NEEDED RAIN EVENT)...ALL-THE-WHILE
NORTHERN ENERGY DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THESE WILL
MERGE...CARVING OUT SAID UPPER LEVEL LOW...BRINGING US A MUCH COOLER
(AND OCCASIONALLY INCLEMENT) PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THIS FORECAST.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PRECIP
TIMING/COVERAGE/AND TYPE (OH MY!).

DETAILS: RAIN...AND PERHAPS A GOOD DEAL OF IT...EXPECTED BY LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TREND HAS BEEN SLOWER BRINGING SOUTHERN
SYSTEM UP THIS WAY...WELL SUPPORTED BY CURRENT VERY DRY OVERHEAD
AIRMASS AND A PROPENSITY FOR THESE SOUTHERN SYSTEMS TO EJECT SLOWER
THAN ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED. MORNING NO DOUBT LOOKS DRY UNDER
INCREASING CLOUDS...AND BASED OFF TRENDS...PERHAPS A DRY START TO
THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS CHANGE HEADING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH GOOD NORTHWARD SURGING MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET RESPONSE...ITSELF A PRODUCT OF REALLY
NICE OVERHEAD PLACEMENT OF RER JET DYNAMICS WITHING ANTI-CYCLONIC
CURVED UPPER JET STREAK. EXPECT A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN TIED TO
APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE/ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...WITH
SAID DYNAMICS AND PWAT VALUES SURGING TO UP NEAR AN INCH
THEORETICALLY SUPPORTING SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SYSTEM LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...BUT ALL TOLD...A WELCOME QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF
LIQUID LOOKS DOABLE. AS FOR THUNDER...STILL APPEARS INSTABILITY CORE
WILL REMAIN REMOVED TO OUR SOUTH...NEGATING ANY THUNDER CONCERN THIS
FAR NORTH. MAIN AREA OF RAIN SHIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH DEEPENING
TROUGH SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT RIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD BE
LIGHTER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

NOT LOOKING TOO GREAT DURING
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH DEEP MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW TIED TO DEEP
OVERHEAD TROUGHING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR DOME (H8 TEMPERATURES AOB -5C) SHOULD ONLY HELP
THE PRECIP CAUSE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT LOOKING QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ANY TYPE OF LAKE CONTRIBUTION. EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWER
CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...REMAINING OPTIMISTIC BY KEEPING
FRIDAY DRY. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. PER TRENDS...REALLY STARTING TO GET THE FEELING
WHAT FALLS OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS MAY BE PRIMARILY SNOW.
EVEN WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S...SAID STEEP LAPSE
RATES/CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SHOULD EASILY DROP TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY...EVEN SUPPORTING AT LEAST SOME RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WOULD NOT BE ENTIRELY SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. JUST GOTTA LOVE SPRING IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU LATE TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
REMAIN OVERHEAD. N/NE AT AROUND 10 KTS TODAY...AND WILL AGAIN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA THRU TONIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA BY
SUNDAY AS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MSB


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