Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 170750
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

OVERVIEW: PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM WESTERLIES REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA THIS MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WITH A COLD
FRONT DRAPED BACK THROUGH ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF SUPERIOR AND A
BROKEN BAND OF MAINLY MID CLOUD STREAMING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/SHOWERS NOTED MOVING INTO MANITOBA.
MEANWHILE...DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS STUCK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
PRODUCING ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDER THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ROCKIES. SRN STREAM JET ENERGY EXTENDS
FROM THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF AND CONTINUES TO BRING AMPLE
RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST STATES.

TODAY...SOME FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING AROUND TRAVERSE CITY/
MANISTEE AND CADILLAC...WHERE WE PICKED UP SOME RAIN YESTERDAY. WILL
HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT EARLY ON. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE RATHER
UNEVENTFUL. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN ONTARIO LOOKING TO
WASH OUT ACROSS THE NRN LAKES REGION. BUT BATCH OF MID CLOUD COVER
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NRN MICHIGAN
FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY LEADING TO OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
BUT IT WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS/DEEP MIXING
TO ABOVE 800 MB SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME LOWER RH VALUES AS INLAND
DEWPOINTS DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S RESULTING IN MIN RH
VALUES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT. BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS...STILL A BIT
MARGINAL FROM AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER PERSPECTIVE...SO I MAY REMOVE
THAT WORDING FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.

TONIGHT...SECOND AREA OF LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL TRACK QUICKLY
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC BY MORNING. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SAG DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
WITH SOME COOLER AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. NOT
EXPECTING VERY MUCH WEATHER-WISE OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER SLIDING THROUGH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: DOWNRIGHT PLEASANT WEATHER
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH A PACIFIC DOMINATED AIRMASS AND A NORTH DISPLACED
(INTO SOUTHERN CANADA) NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SUPPORTING SUCH.
AND...FOR EVEN MORE GOOD NEWS...REALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL BE ON THE WAY TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND WITH NOW
NEARLY UNANIMOUS SUPPORT FOR CURRENT 4-CORNERS UPPER LOW (AND LEAD
WAVE) TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
IMPRESSIVE GULF FEED OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM...WITH
MID 60 DEW POINTS ALREADY PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. PATTERN
REALLY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AND SLOW DOWN HEADING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH MERGER OF SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVING
OUT QUITE THE COLD CORE GYRE OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES/SOUTHERN
CANADA. TIME OF YEAR DEFINITELY SUPPORTS SUCH CUT-OFF SLOW MOVING
SYSTEMS...AND GIVEN EXPECTED AMPLIFICATION...THIS ONE HAS THE LOOKS
OF BECOMING ONE. EARLY TEMP PROGS NEXT WEEK DEFINITELY SUPPORT AT
LEAST SOME SNOW POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
(DIDN`T THINK SNOW SEASON WAS OVER YET...DID YOU?)

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: INITIAL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER
PARAMETERS SATURDAY (SPECIFICALLY TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY). LATER PERIODS DOMINATED BY PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE/AND
TYPE.

DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY YIELDS TO ITS MID
LEVEL LIKENESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A QUIET AND SUN-FILLED
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY MILD WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. OF COURSE...WITH SUCH
WINDS...SHORELINE AREAS OF LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. ABSOLUTE DEARTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHALLOW MIXING UP THROUGH H8 BOTH SUPPORT TANKING DEW POINTS INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. SO DESPITE COOLER TEMPS...
PLUMMETING RH VALUES AND ONGOING STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER/PRE-GREEN UP
SUPPORTS CONTINUED MENTION OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER PRODUCTS.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS EARLIER MENTIONED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS MAKES THEIR WAY NORTHEAST UP INTO OUR AREA.
DRY LOW LEVELS SUPPORTS A SLOWER ONSET TO THE RAINS...AND BASED OF
CURRENT TIMING...BELIEVE MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING MAY END UP DRY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET SURGES PWAT VALUES TO AOA 1
INCH LEVELS. CORRIDOR OF FORCED CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF JET
COINCIDENT WITH PASSING MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD SPREAD A RATHER
RESPECTABLE AREA OF RAIN NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING. SYSTEM LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...BUT BASED OFF DYNAMICS/MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD EASILY
SEE MOST PLACES EXCEEDING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST THUNDER THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ANY FURTHER WEST
ADJUSTMENT AND THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...INCLEMENT AND INCREASINGLY
CHILLY ABOUT SUMS UP THE WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME HINTS
ANOTHER SOUTHERN WAVE MAKES A RUN AT US MONDAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS
TO CLOSE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. REST OF THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY THIS
SLOW MOVING COLD CORE LOW...WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND YET TO BE DETERMINED SUBTLE WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT
SYSTEM BRINGING AT LEAST SPORADIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. PER RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS SHOWING CRASHING WET BULB
HEIGHTS...STARTING TO LOOK UNAVOIDABLE THAT AT LEAST SOME SNOW WILL
MIX IN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S MONDAY GIVES WAY TO READINGS LARGELY
IN THE 40S TUESDAY-THURSDAY. GIVEN SUCH STEEP LAPSE RATES...CAN
REALLY ENVISION TEMPS TANKING WHEN SHOWERS OCCUR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAINFALL ACROSS THE TVC/MBL/CAD AREAS YESTERDAY LEADING TO SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IMPACTING MBL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS THERE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TOWARD MORNING AS SOME
MID CLOUD SPREADS INTO THE REGION RAISING TEMPS JUST ENOUGH TO
ALLEVIATE FOG. BUT PLAN ON IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS AT MBL THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
EVERYWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKES AGAIN TODAY WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
A GOOD BET. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME A
BIT GUSTY TOWARD MORNING...AS A SUBTLE COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WEAKEN ON SATURDAY AND VEER
MORE EASTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM



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