Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 162357
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
757 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

CURRENT FORECAST TREND IS STILL ON TRACK. PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT AND CLEARING CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST. EXPECT EASTERNMOST CWA TO CLEAR/SCATTER OUT BY
MIDNIGHT WITH CALM WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A WEAK (1020MB) SURFACE
WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  FARTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM JAMES BAY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA/SOUTH
DAKOTA.  SMALL VORTICITY CENTER WAS SPINNING NORTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ERIE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (A PAIR OF
VORTICITY CENTERS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA/CENTRAL WISCONSIN).
EARLIER RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER HAVE THINNED...WITH SPOTTY
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...WHILE NORTHERN ONTARIO COLD FRONT DROPS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING MIXED SKIES TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE CURRENT
CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIN THIS EVENING...WILL THEN
WATCH CLOUD BAND OVER MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH MAY BRING
SOME CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  WILL CALL IT PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT FOR NOW...GIVEN GENERAL LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION
EXPECTED.  A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
US-131 CORRIDOR TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY AND THICKER
CLOUDS HAVE HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS UNDER 10
DEGREES.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR THE WEEKEND.

(04/17-18)FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING CUT OFF 500 MB OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ENE INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES BY 00Z. AHEAD OF IT, THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, AT THE SFC,
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A VERY DRY FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE

(04/19)SUNDAY...AS THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE RAIN MOVING IN
DURING THE DAY, TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON, HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE RAIN GETTING IN AND MOVING ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. AROUND 18Z, THE 850 MB AND LOWER MOISTURE IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE 700-500 MB MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE, THE WARM FRONT AND THE 500 MB LOW TO THE WEST AND ITS
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVES, SHOULD GET US SOME SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST, OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN S LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z. AS WELL, ADDING TO THE DYNAMIC LIFT. SO
RAIN SHOULD BE PRODUCED IF NOT ALL THE WAY TO THE STRAITS, AT THE
VERY LEAST TO ABOUT M-32. THE 850 MB MOISTURE WILL GET INTO E UPPER
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS UP THERE FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MUCH NEEDED (POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT)
RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOL AND UNSETTLED
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN: LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE GREAT
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A DEEP TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
THEN MERGES WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WHICH
SHIFTS OVER AND PARKS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

WEATHER: BEST SHOT OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL COMES SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE.
WILL KEEP FINGERS CROSSED THESE PWATS PAN OUT...TO SQUASH FIRE
POTENTIAL AND HASTEN GREENUP. AS LOW SIT AND SPINS IN SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC SHOTS OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL...SHOULD THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
LINE UP WITH DIURNAL DIPS TO AROUND 30 OR LESS...SAID PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT BE MADE UP ENTIRELY OF THE LIQUID VARIETY. WILL GO AHEAD
AND MIX IN THE S-WORD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...IN THE EASTERN
UPPER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN EVERYWHERE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...IF FOR NO OTHER REASON THAN THAT IS
STILL A LONG WAY OFF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVERHEAD AND WARM AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...A LITTLE STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY BUT HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJL
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...TJL
MARINE...JPB



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