Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KAPX 012340
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
740 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

OVERVIEW...A SFC HIGH THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, IS PRODUCING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT, IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THIS EVENING.

AT 500 MB THERE IS A SHARP RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A
500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRYING TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE.

DETAILS FOR TONIGHT...BASED ON THE ANALYSIS, SATELLITE IMAGES AND
RADAR, THE MOISTURE IS BECOMING UNCOORDINATED FROM THE FRONT/500 MB
TROUGH. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE 700-500 MB
LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN OUT AND FALL APART. THE 850 MB
MOISTURE IS BEHIND THE 700-500 MB MOISTURE BY ABOUT 100 MILES, AS
THE SFC TROUGH WASHES OUT AS THE SFC HIGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE, BUT FOR THE
MOST PART, THINK THAT THE DRY FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING SPANS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH WARMER AIR
FINALLY GETTING INTO THE STATE. STRONGER SHORT WAVE AND UPPER JET
ENERGY IS ADVANCING THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO MONTANA...A SYSTEM THAT
WILL IMPACT US LATER IN THE WEEKEND. CLOSER TO HOME...ANOTHER
STRETCHED OUT ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS MAKING IT/S WAY ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/PLAINS. SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
FRONT FROM WISCONSIN INTO IOWA. BUT PRECIP HAS BEEN FALLING APART
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT SLOWS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO WASH OUT AND SLIP ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY. STILL
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAT A CORRIDOR OF THICKER CLOUD COVER
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND MINIMAL THREAT FOR PRECIP.
SUPPOSE ONE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED SHOWER.
BUT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
BEHIND THE FRONT/TROUGH...WEAK WARM ADVECTION FLOW REDEVELOPS AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY KEEPING SCT-BKN LOW-MID CLOUD AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY (CALL IT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY)...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY THIN BACK OUT AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS EVEN
WARMER AIR SPREADS BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN. SOLID 70S ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...65 YO 70 IN EASTERN UPPER.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WEATHER TURNS A BIT MORE ACTIVE ACROSS
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER INTO
THE NRN GREAT LAKES. STRONGER SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT/PRECIP SWEEPING THROUGH
THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG GUIDANCE BUT WILL KEEP ALL PRECIP OUT OF THIS CWA
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIP ENDING MONDAY MORNING. THUNDER...
PERHAPS...AS A NARROW AXIS OF REDUCED STABILITY ALOFT SLIDES
THROUGH. BUT HONESTLY THE MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL
RESIDE BACK THROUGH WISCONSIN INTO IOWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

EXTENDED MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIKELY RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES MONDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION
FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THERE WILL THEN BE LOW CHANCE POPS (FOR
SHOWERS) WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES AS THE FRONT BEGINS ITS
RETURN NORTHWARD. POPS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT LIKELY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER OVER THE DETAILS LATER NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE GFS CUTTING OF A TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THERE IS PLENTY
OF TIME TO IRON OUT THOSE DETAILS THOUGH. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S
(WITH THE WARMEST DAY LOOKING TO BE THURSDAY) AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S FOR THE MOST PART (EXCEPT FOR A FEW UPPER 30S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU
SATURDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...THICKEN AND
LOWER TONIGHT AS A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT MOVES THRU THE
REGION. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME WESTERLY BELOW 10
KTS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION,
IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
SO THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WON`T BE NEEDED. SUNDAY, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN UP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
AS THE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 KNOTS, THERE COULD BE SOME
GUSTS THAT COULD CAUSE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JSL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.