Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KAPX 230110
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
910 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

SHSN OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELTS ARE BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD...AS
DIURNAL HEATING (SUCH AS IT WAS) IS LOST AND OPEN-CELLULAR
CONVECTION DECREASES. DELTA T/S ARE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS...AND
SHSN WILL CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES THRU THE NIGHT. ACTIVITY
MAY START TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE SNOWBELTS VERY LATE...AS
DRIER AIR GETS DRAGGED INTO THE REGION. (SEEING THIS PROCESS
UNDERWAY FROM THE RADAR NEAR THUNDER BAY ONT.) BUT IN THE
MEANTIME...A GENERAL INCH-OR-SO OF SNOW IN THE SNOWBELTS OF BOTH
PENINSULAS IS PERFECTLY REASONABLE. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN
EASTERN UPPER...TO BETTER LINE UP WITH CURRENT OBS. NO MAJOR
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

...COLD WITH CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS...

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE AMPLE CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH LARGE SCALE FORCING AND WE WILL
LOSE THE DIURNAL COMPONENT...INVERSION HEIGHTS STAY RIGHT AROUND
5KFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -13C...THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE TO TRIGGER SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND SOME SNOWFALL REPORTS TOMORROW MORNING OF 1 INCH
(MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER) OVER NORTHWESTERN LOWER AND/OR EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS...ALBEIT LIGHT...SHOULD BE OVER
EASTERN UPPER WHERE THE SLIGHTLY BETTER LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS
EXIST. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: WHILE NOT HIGH IMPACT, SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT, WILL COAT THE ROADS IF IT FALLS HARD ENOUGH, AND WILL
PRODUCE SLIPPERY SECTIONS.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: TIMING THE SNOW TO END AND THE SKIES TO CLEAR.

(04/23)THURSDAY...STARTING AROUND 12Z, THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AS THE 850-700 MB RH BEGINS TO FALL OFF SO THAT BY 00Z,
THE RH IS LESS THAN 20%. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -10C AND
ARE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY, SO WE SHOULD BE LOSING INSTABILITY, AS
WELL AS MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THE CONCERN IS THAT THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LES, BUT WITH THE SUN ANGLE, AND NOT A LOT OF
WIND SHEAR, WILL EXPECT LIKE TODAY THAT WE WOULD GET CELLULAR LAKE
EFFECT, SO AS THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WANE IN THE AFTERNOON,
WILL EXPECT THAT THE COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THIN OUT
AND CEASE BY THE EVENING.

(04/24)FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AND KEEP THE
AREA DRY AS THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP THE HEIGHTS
BUILDING MODELS KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER, THE
GFS IS MAKING A CASE TO INTRODUCE POPS DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS OF
THE NIGHT.

(04/25)SATURDAY...HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH THE GFS THREATENS TO BRING
RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA, IT FOLLOWS THE ECMWF IDEA OF PUSHING
THE RAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, LEAVING THE DAY DRY. WITH THE
SFC HIGH MOVING EAST INTO HUDSON BAY, WILL CONSIDER THAT WE SHOULD
HAVE A SET UP FOR DRY AIR PUSHING THE WEATHER SYSTEMS SOUTH. THIS
LEAVES THE 500 MB RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY, AND
SHOULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

LITTLE OF CONSEQUENCE ON THE HORIZON FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE REALLY
DIMINISHES AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE GLOBAL
MODEL CONSISTENCY AS TO WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DEVELOP AND APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK
INTO THE REGION. WILL INCLUDE LOW END POPS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE
A FEELING THIS MAY BE DELAYED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS BASED ON THE LACK
OF CONVINCING SUPPORT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK MANAGEABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD (ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO WHAT WE`RE SEEING NOW) WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
TO EVEN NEAR 60 DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. KEEP IN MIND
NORMALS ARE RIDING IN THE UPPER 50S BY THIS POINT...SO WHILE WE`LL
STILL LIKELY BE A SHADE BELOW NORMAL...IT`LL BE ANOTHER WELCOME
ROUND OF SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

SOME SHSN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THURSDAY.

LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TOWARD MAINE AND
THEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WE WILL MAINTAIN
SHSN ACTIVITY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NW LOWER AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES. CIGS
WILL LOWER SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...WITH ALL SITES SEEING MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THURSDAY AS WE START TO
DRY OUT A LITTLE BIT...WITH ALL LOCALES VFR BY THU AFTERNOON.

SOMEWHAT BLUSTERY NW WINDS THRU THE FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

CONTINUED LOW PRESSURE WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NRN
MICHIGAN WILL COMBINE WITH GROWING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY THROUGH
TONIGHT...TO PRODUCE LOW END/MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. AIDING THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
DRAWING DOWN THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...TJL
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...TJL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.