Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 232347
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
647 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES/INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

ANOTHER SOMEWHAT CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE REGION DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S. WEATHER MAP HAD A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RUNNING
N/S ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.

LOOK FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP OFF
IN TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT LOOKS IN STORE WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL
WI. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20/LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE AS
HIGH/MID CLOUD RACE IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE PUSHING
INTO THE PLAINS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCES WILL BE
BETTER ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AHEAD OF DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NOSING INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EAST/SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW AND ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 50S...OR SOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PLAN ON RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-90 AS SURFACE/MID-LEVEL LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER SOUTHERN IA. THIS ACTS TO FOCUS/CONFINE RAIN ACROSS
THIS AREA. WILL CARRY SOME SMALLER-END POPS NORTH OF I-94...BUT
DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW COULD KEEP THAT AREA PRECIPITATION-FREE OR
PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES AT BEST. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR PERHAPS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL WI AS THERMAL PROFILES SHOW
WET BULB ZERO FLIRTING WITH 32 DEGREES AT THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOOK FOR A RAW/RAINY DAY MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 SATURDAY AS
THAT STACKED LOW MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS IL. EAST WINDS OF 10-20
MPH...GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S/NEAR 60.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND. LOOK FOR HIGHS
STARTING OFF IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ON MONDAY...WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AS THE RIDGE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...THE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
CHANGING, THE WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
24.15Z...AND THEN THE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 10 TO
20 KNOT RANGE. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT KRST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...A
10 TO 15K DECK OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. AS THE 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING...CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE 4 TO 8K RANGE. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BRING DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL
HELP SLOW THE ONSET OF RAIN AND LOWERING OF CEILINGS TO MVFR. THE
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP AT KRST AROUND 24.15Z AND CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MVFR AROUND 24.21Z. MEANWHILE KLSE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 24.23Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....DAS
LONG TERM......DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE


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