Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 160844 CCA
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION FOR FORMAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH KENTUCKY. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
POPPING UP ON RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS MN...BUT MOST OF THESE WERE
EVAPORATING DUE TO VERY DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EMANATING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE...QUITE A BIT OF HIGH-
BASED ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS MN INTO NORTHERN WI AHEAD OF THIS ADVANCING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGED FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE LOWER 50S
UNDER THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

FOR TODAY...THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST...
EXITING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. THIS ALLOWS DEFAULT
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
OVERALL. 925MB TEMPERATURE WILL BE SOME 2-3C HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY/QUIET
CONDITIONS. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUD AHEAD OF A CLOSED
LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 16-18C RANGE UNDER THE RIDGE...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS FRIDAY PUSHING INTO THE RANGING FROM AROUND 70 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THAT CLOSED LOW PUSHES MOISTURE TOWARD
THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S. OF NOTE...WILL
SEE A RATHER DRY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS WI AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS WINDS
WILL BE IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25-
30 PERCENT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED FIRE CONCERN...SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAIL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MORE SO ON SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES PHASED WITH A TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH.
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S..TO PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

THE MAIN TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS BACK TO A CLOSED LOW AND BECOMES
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ON/OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS SLIPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE...FALLING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S/LOWER 50S BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT
OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE ORIENTED EAST/WEST NORTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME VERY BAGGY THURSDAY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
CONTINUE DIMINISHING AND BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR SOME PERIODS
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL VFR CEILINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(FOR SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WILL BE LOOKING AT A POTENTIALLY ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN IN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY. DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ONTARIO CANADA/GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
BLOWING AT 10-20 MPH...GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH. IF DRIER AIR IS
REALIZED...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY REACH MORE CRITICAL VALUES.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04


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