Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 020000 CCA
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
700 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS AROUND WINDY/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS GOING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN CONVECTION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS UPON US THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS. THIS WAS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI/SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. SOUTH WINDS WERE
GUSTING UPWARDS OF 35-40 MPH ACROSS THE MORE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH LOW DEW POINTS/RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...WAS PRODUCING SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THAT AREA. MORE DETAIL ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE
FOUND BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION. ALSO...WILL CONTINUE
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

GOING INTO LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING THAT LOW
AND COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.
NAM DEPICTING 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES IN. THESE VALUES MAY BE A BIT ON THE
HIGH SIDE GIVEN THAT THE NAM THINKS DEW POINTS WILL BE PUSHING INTO
THE MIDDLE 50S WHICH SEEM A BIT OVERDONE. NONETHELESS...
DETERMINISTIC AND WRF MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
DECENT/VIGOROUS/NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. GIVEN RELATIVELY NARROW CAPE DEPICTED BY
BUFKIT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE WITH PERHAPS A FEW PEA SIZE
HAILSTONES AND A FEW SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

THE FRONT SLOWLY CLEARS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATER THURSDAY MORNING
WITH SHOWER THREAT ENDING. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO BREEZY WEST WINDS
KICKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING OF DRIER AIR.
BASED ON THIS...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...LOOKS SOME 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE 60S.

COLDER AIR CONTINUE TO FILTER IN THURSDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE AREA
WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS A SMALL PART OF
NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COOLER NORTH
FLOW...PLAN ON HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 40S.

GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...QUASI-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN WI FOR A CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW/DAYTIME RAIN ON SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME
PRECIPITATION. AGAIN...COULD BE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ALL RAIN LATER IN
THE DAY SUNDAY AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN
WI...TO NEAR 60 ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

FAIRLY ACTIVE/WET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SENDS A
COUPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE OUR WAY. APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL
HOVER RIGHT AROUND NORMAL EARLY APRIL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CIGS...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH LOWER DECKS AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS IN LATER TONIGHT. SOME HINTS THAT CIGS COULD DROP INTO
MVFR CATEGORIES...BUT WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...FEEL THIS THREAT IS LOW. THAT SAID...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST AND SEE WHAT MANIFESTS IN
RELATION TO CLOUDS. FOR THE MOMENT...WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOWER CIGS
FOR KRST.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY THU
MORNING...AND SHOULD STAY VFR INTO THU NIGHT.

WINDS...
MIXING/PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A SWITCH
TO WEST/NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY 09-12Z TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP BY
THU AFTERNOON...BUT MUCH LESS THAN TODAY.

ANY THUNDERSTORM LATER TONIGHT COULD HAVE SOME ENHANCED GUSTINESS
DUE TO THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER.

WX/VSBY...
SHOWERS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOME
INSTABILITY WITH HELP FROM THE 850 MB JET COULD SPARK SOME TS AT
KRST...BUT NOT AS FAVORABLE AS YOU MOVE FARTHER EAST TOWARD KLSE.
WILL KEEP MENTION AT KRST...BUT REMOVE AT KLSE FOR NOW. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE TS WOULD
LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED...AND EXPECT MOSTLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS
OF MVFR WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...REST OF TODAY AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA ALONG WITH ELEVATED
CONDITIONS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES WERE
HOVERING IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 70S WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15-25
MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS OPEN AREAS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THAT AREA WERE IN THE 20-
30 PERCENT RANGE. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA COUNTIES TIL 7 PM.

ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE
20S ONCE AGAIN WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. HAVE HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SOUTHEAST MN FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM THURSDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...DAS



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