Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 282338
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
638 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

TONIGHT A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DURING THE AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...MOST RETURNS NOTED ON RADAR ARE
NOT REACHING THE GROUND...WITH ACTIVITY FURTHER BACK IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT POPS DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WESTERN
PORTIONS MAY SEE SCATTERED SHOWER OR TWO EARLY IN THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...AND HAVE LEFT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING
AND GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE PRECIPITATION
AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES
SOUTH INTO GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BEING
THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER. WAVE DROPPING SOUTH WITH LOW MAY ALLOW
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND TIMING AND LOCATION OF WAVE AS BEST FORCING REMAINS
TO THE EAST OF AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS DO INDICATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR MENTION OF THUNDER...AND
HAVE LEFT MENTION IN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CUT BACK SOMEWHAT ON
WESTERN AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND MAY
HAVE BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE ON TRIMMING BACK POPS. AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WITH CAA WRAPPING AROUND LOW HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT
COOLER ACROSS AREA FOR END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH GENERALLY STAYED
NEAR GOING.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH EAST THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
DRIVES EAST ACROSS CANADA. FRONT ASSOCIATE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY...REACHING CWA LATE. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF SYSTEM...THOUGH
HAVE GENERALLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY...THOUGH LATEST MODELS RUNS CONTINUE TO SLOW
PROGRESSION AND MAY BE TOO FAST. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH RIDGE
BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING BOUNDARY. BEHIND BOUNDARY
WAA WILL RETURN WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SECONDARY
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN EXTENDED ARRIVING SUNDAY. MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF SYSTEM...THOUGH GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE BRINGING SYSTEM THROUGH QUICKER WHILE ECMWF HANGS
BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF CWA INTO TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION FOR NOW...THOUGH MAY SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LINGER INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN
IMPACT BEING A SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK WITH BASES IN THE 8 TO 10 KFT
RANGE. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY BUT ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS GENERATED BY THE TROUGH WILL STAY WELL
EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. PLAN ON
NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 4 TO 7 KTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 9 TO 11
KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...WETENKAMP


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