Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 021746
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1246 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 856 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE MORNING FOG HAS ERODED AND HAVE REMOVED. OTHERWISE...SHORT
TERM HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN ON THE ONSET OF ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS UNTIL THIS EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS/WEATHER/QPF ACCORDINGLY. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VERY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE SOME CONCERNS RELATED TO JUST HOW FAR EAST THE
PRECIPITATION MAKES IT TONIGHT...BUT SUNDAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80 TODAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT NEARING ANY RECORD HIGHS.
COOLER TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

EARLY THIS MORNING PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN PORTIONS OF INLAND
NORTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO LAST
VERY LONG PAST SUNRISE.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH.
DRY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WINDS IN THIS REGION WILL GUST TO OVER
25 MPH AT TIMES DUE TO DEEP MIXING...SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS WITH REGARD TO FIRE WEATHER RISK. AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS
IN THE FORM OF CU ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA....MAINLY FROM
LEECH LAKE TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND POINTS WEST BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES VERY WARM...IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80
INLAND...BUT AS COOL AS THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ADJACENT TO LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH COOLER TEMPS MOVING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH SHORE DUE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LAKE.

TONIGHT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS EVENING BUT LIKELY DISSIPATE AS THEY
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT. KEPT POPS GOING OVERNIGHT
WHERE THE BEST EML WILL BE LOCATED...BUT THINK DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS
WILL CAUSE THE LINE OF PRECIP TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SOLUTION...THOUGH SOME OF THE PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
ECMWF DEPICT A MUCH MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUSTAINING PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE THIS TO BE DUE TO OVERSATURATION AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...AND THUS THINK THIS SOLUTION IS OVERDONE. GEM OFFERS A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SO LEANED TOWARDS
THIS FOR THE OVERNIGHT POPS. TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS
COVER ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT AND SW FLOW LEADING TO CONTINUED WAA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IN THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE LAKE TO LOW/MID 50S
MOST LOCATIONS INLAND...WHICH IS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUNDAY...AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP LATE SAT NIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. MLCAPE OF 500 TO 1500 WILL
BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AT JUST OVER AN INCH ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH
A TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH SOME LOCATIONS REVIVING
OVER A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS
COOLER...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY EVENING...EXITING TO
THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE HAYWARD
TO PARK FALLS AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER MN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...CENTERING
OVER THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A VORT MAX TRANSLATES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AND H85
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY. ALTHOUGH HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER /IN THE 60S MONDAY/...THE DRY AIR MASS
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING AND LOW RH VALUES
AROUND 20 PERCENT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH.

FOCUS TURNS TO LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THAT
EJECTS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE UPPER PLAINS MID-WEEK. THE WAVE WILL
LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE  NORTHLAND DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...BRINGING A TRANSITION TO GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS /EXCEPT EAST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/ AND INCREASING
MOISTURE. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A TREND TOWARDS A WET PERIOD AS
THE WAVES ORGANIZES INTO A SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WED
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST ACROSS MINN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD, LONG DURATION,
RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND WHETHER THE STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY REACH
THE KINL AREA...AND HAVE PUT IN ONLY A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS
TIME...WITH NO THUNDER IN ANY OF THE OTHER TAFS...JUST VCSH
GROUPS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS
ALOFT AT 1.5-2 KFT INCREASE TO 30-35 KTS FOR 06Z-12Z LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE ADDED LLWS FOR KDLH AND KHIB...AND MAY NEED TO ALSO BE ADDED
FOR KHYR AS WELL. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...BUT MAINLY FOR KHYR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  76  52  72  43 /   0  20  50   0
INL  81  49  72  38 /  10  20  20   0
BRD  79  54  73  43 /   0  30  40   0
HYR  77  54  75  43 /   0   0  80  20
ASX  77  51  75  43 /   0  10  80  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE/GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE






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