Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 210851
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
351 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP GRADUALLY WINDS DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH BREEZY
WINDS TODAY...DIMINISHING TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

SFC LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A
N AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...ALLOWING CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AT LOW/MID LEVELS.
850MB TEMPS FINALLY BOTTOM OUT BY WEDNESDAY AT -10 TO -12C. WHILE
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COLD...THE CLOUD COVER DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL LIMIT HOW LOW TEMPS FALL TONIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGHOUT TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW DUE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GENERALLY TURN FROM
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TODAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL RAMP UP...PRODUCING ONE TO THREE INCHES ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TO THE WEST EXPECT SOME CLEARING SKIES IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TODAY...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON. WENT ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION AND
GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND EVEN SOME SBCAPE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE MOST INTENSE SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO INTENSE PRECIP. SHOWERS WILL
GENERALLY BE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TODAY...EXCEPT ON ELEVATED
SURFACES WHERE A DUSTING IN POSSIBLE. SOME EXCEPTIONS ACROSS
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE
SNOW BELT REGION IN NORTHERN IRON AND ASHLAND COUNTIES. BREEZY
AGAIN...WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY
REMAINING COOL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

TONIGHT...PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
INTENSITY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WISCONSIN SNOW BELT REGION. ONE TO
THREE INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. LOWS AROUND THE MID 20S...EXCEPT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WHERE LOWS MAY REACH NEAR 20.

WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS END EARLY. NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. SOME
CLEARING IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT OTHERWISE ANOTHER CLOUDY
DAY. HIGHS EDGING WARMER IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A GRADUAL END IN SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST. SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE DETAILS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME
BIG DIFFERENCES START TO SHOW UP ON FRIDAY. THE GFS MAINTAINS A
GENERALLY DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GEM
INDICATES A FAIRLY STRONG LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL
BRING A LARGE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA BY 00Z SATURDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF BRINGS
PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS THE ARROWHEAD BY THAT TIME. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ON ANY OF THE SOLUTIONS...AND THE EXTENDED WILL HAVE
SOME SMALL POPS LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS MN AND INTO WI. SOME MAJOR
DIFFERENCES THEN AGAIN APPEAR BY TUESDAY. OVERALL...NOT LOOKING AT
MAJOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD. RESOLVING
VARIOUS PRECIPITATION EVENTS WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S DURING THE WEEK...RISING TO THE 50S BY THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL MOVE EAST AND
CONTINUE TO CAUSE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND. THE SNOW MAY DIMINISH IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT...BUT STEEP
LAPSE RATES SHOULD CAUSE MORE SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
WILL OCCUR AND WIDESPREAD IFR IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY. CEILINGS MAY
INCREASE TO LOW VFR IN SPOTS ON TUESDAY...AND MORE SO TUESDAY
EVENING.

GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...AND INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  26  40  26 /  30  10  10  10
INL  35  22  38  21 /  80  10  10  10
BRD  36  26  44  25 /  30  10   0   0
HYR  36  26  41  25 /  60  30  10  10
ASX  38  27  41  27 /  50  50  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP






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