Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 192354
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
654 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

WILL BE MAKING SOME UPDATES TO FORECAST IN THE NEXT HOUR TO MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE MANITOBA LAKES REGION
AT 18Z. A LONG WAVE TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDED SOUTH TO
OKLAHOMA. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTING NWD FROM THE TROF ARE
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
NORTH CENTRAL TO SE MN AT 18Z. AS THOSE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
ENERGY ROTATE TOWARD THE AREA THEY WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE VCNTY OF
AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. WILL SEE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER NE MN
INTO NW WI THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO NEAR THE BORDER OF
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND CANADA. MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BE DRAWN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BEST UVM IS FOUND OVER THE
ARROWHEAD INTO NW WI. RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO THIS AREA. WILL BE A
BREAK IN THE PCPN OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. NO LONGER EXPECTING
SNOW TONIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WAFFLES AROUND NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS IN
THE MORNING...THEN MOVES TO NE MN IN THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE
SFC LOW LIFTS NWD INTO ONTARIO. NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION ON MONDAY
WILL RESULT IN THE PTYPE STAYING LIQUID. BEST FORCING REMAINS OVER
THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD INTO NW WI AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS/QPF THERE
AS A RESULT. BY AFTERNOON...FORCING THAT WAS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND
NW WI EXITS WHILE THE NEXT ROUND OF UVM ARRIVES FROM THE NW. HAVE
POPS THAT SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON WHILE SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE EAST. WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...EXPECT PTYPE TO BE ALL LIQUID AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION
OF SNOW FOR THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
MID WEEK...GRADUALLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND INTO MIDWEEK...THEN IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.

WE HAVE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ALONG THE SNOWBELT REGION OF ASHLAND/IRON
COUNTIES. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY OCCUR EARLY MONDAY EVENING AND BECOME MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS OCCUR.
SNOWFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES. SOME MELTING WILL
LIKELY OCCUR AS WELL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATION
WILL BE ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS THE BORDER REGION INTO THE
ARROWHEAD.

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MID-LATE
WEEK LOOSENING ITS IMPACT ON THE REGION. WE CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT DROP POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE ARROWHEAD AND IN FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER IN THE
WEEK AND BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO MOST AREAS INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH A
SLOW MODERATING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN/FOG/DRIZZLE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS A BAND OF RAIN MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST AREAS
INCLUDING KBRD MAY GO VFR BRIEFLY LATER THIS EVENING...BUT AS
COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...LOWER
CEILINGS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AFTER 15Z
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  43  30  41 /  70  20  60  50
INL  30  43  29  41 /  50  50  70  60
BRD  33  42  33  45 /  20  30  40  50
HYR  37  44  32  41 /  80  50  50  50
ASX  37  46  33  42 /  80  90  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE







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