Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 010831
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
331 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE WERE MOVING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING WITH AN AREA OF RAIN OCCURRING AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES.
AS OF 0830Z...RAIN STRETCHED FROM NEAR KINL TO KDTL AND SOUTH INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THERE WERE ALSO A FEW SHOWERS FURTHER WEST
TOWARD KABR. THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA
OF RAIN WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
FURTHER EAST INTO DRIER AIR AND AWAY FROM THE BETTER FORCING. OUR
POPS REFLECT THIS TREND WITH LIKELY WORDING OVER THE WEST
EARLY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FAR EAST. ONE CHANGE WE DID MAKE
WAS TO ADD A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE A FOCUS AND ACT ON SOME LOW STABILITY AIR
WHICH MAY SET OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THE MODELS WERE INDICATING
THIS CHANCE WITH EARLIER RUNS...AND CONTINUE TO DO SO. SEVERAL OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS AS WELL. WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE
LOWER SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES ACROSS THE CWA...WARMEST OVER THE
WEST WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED.

CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN
SPOTS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID
SEVENTIES TO AROUND 80. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT WE MAY BE TOO WARM
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE MAY BE AN ONSHORE WIND ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE INTO THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREAS THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL TURN TO
SOUTHWEST. IF THIS HAPPENS...IT WILL WARM THE AREAS
MENTIONED...BUT KEEP THE NORTH SHORE COOLER THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
HUMIDITY AND SOME AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY GUSTS WILL MEAN FIRE WEATHER
VALUES WILL APPROACH CRITICAL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES REGION NORTH THROUGH INTERNATIONAL FALLS. THE RAIN
TODAY WILL DO LITTLE TO MOISTEN FUELS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

FORECAST REMAINS WARM AND UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A H85 TROUGH IS FCST TO SWEEP ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MN SUNDAY MORNING...REACHING THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NW WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HRS.
ATTM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
THUNDER AND EVEN A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY. LOCATIONS IN NRN WISCONSIN WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...AS LATEST NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND SFC BASED
CAPE VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT
SINKS OVER THE NORTHLAND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT H85
TEMPERATURES COMMENCE IN THE MID TEENS SUNDAY MORNING...FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS BY MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MONDAY...IN THE 50S TO 60S...THE DRY AIR MASS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING AND LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH.

FOCUS TURNS TO LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS THAT EJECTS A
SHORT WAVE INTO THE UPPER PLAINS MID-WEEK. THE WAVE WILL BRING GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS /EXCEPT EAST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/ AND INCREASING
MOISTURE TO THE THE REGION. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WITH A
TREND TOWARDS A WET PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KBRD BETWEEN
12Z-15Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...AS -RA DEVELOPS
DUE TO A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH. KINL MAY SEE MVFR CIGS FROM
TIME TO TIME BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z...BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
DUE TO DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS SHOW PRECIPITATION DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AS THE FRONT WEAKENS WHILE MOVING THROUGH. AS A RESULT
ONLY KEPT VCSH FOR KDLH AND KHIB DUE TO THE DRY AIR AND WEAKENING
FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  44  75  49 /  50  20   0  20
INL  70  45  81  49 /  50  10  10  20
BRD  69  48  81  53 /  70  10   0  30
HYR  65  43  80  53 /  20  20   0  10
ASX  69  41  77  51 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING/WL







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