Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 270519
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1219 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE WITH NARROW SFC HIGH REFLECTION WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST OVER THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...WITH WIDESPREAD RH
VALUES IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF DRY
AIR/LOW DEW PTS...LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN
TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. SOME TEENS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS.

MONDAY WILL BE WARMER...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES (KIWD) DUE TO A VORT MAX
THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE
MICHIGAN IN THE CYCLONIC WRAP FLOW AROUND A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OFF
THE EAST COAST. THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...FOR LOCATIONS IN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...SHORT
RANGE/HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE KEEPING THE MOISTURE AXIS TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT-OFF FROM
WARM/DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS...TO COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY THEN DRY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND UNTIL
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. OVERALL A WARM AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEEKEND...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY DAY. PRECIP
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH NO DAY LOOKING LIKE A
WASH OUT AT THIS POINT.

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. WHILE GUIDANCE HAD SEEMED TO BE COMING TO A MORE WET
CONSENSUS...IT APPEARS MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION AND INSTEAD ARE BACK TO A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AS THEY CROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. ECMWF IS AND HAS BEEN
THE OUTLIER...BUT HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. BEYOND THIS THE RECENT GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SPLITS OFF WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD RESULT IS COOLER TEMPS...BUT STILL EXPECT
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS.

WED/THURS...DRY AND WARMING AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE/TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD TO IN THE 60S INLAND...APPROACHING 70 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS LEECH LAKE TO THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.

ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH...THIS TIME LOCATED FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FROM HERE ON OUT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATTERN IS GENERALLY UNSTABLE AND WARM WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY OF THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS POINT
TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PRECIP...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS EACH
DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SOME GUSTS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DEEPER MIXING. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SOME MID CLOUDS TO KINL
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  62  39  59 /   0  20  10  10
INL  42  61  37  64 /  40  30   0   0
BRD  43  66  40  67 /  20  40   0   0
HYR  37  64  38  63 /   0  10  10   0
ASX  32  61  35  57 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE







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