Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 180545
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 828 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED TO ALLOW RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE. CONDITIONS IN THE
WARNING AREA ARE STILL MEETING THRESHOLD AS OF 8PM...WITH STRONG
NORTH WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOW
20S FOR RH VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THE LOW 30S ARE NOT
FAR AWAY AND WINDS ARE ALREADY DIMINISHING. THUS HAVE DECIDED TO
LET WARNING EXPIRE WITH A NOTATION THAT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE
CRITICAL FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS
WILL OCCUR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION.
SOME CU WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST ANGLE
TOWARD KROX AS OF 19Z. THE AIRMASS IS VERY DRY AND WE EXPECT
LITTLE MORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF CU TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH
WINDS SWITCHING TO EAST/NORTHEAST. LOWS WILL DROP TO 30 TO 40
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD KEEP THE AREA PRECIP FREE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS WILL HOWEVER GRADUALLY INCREASE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EASTERLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE LAKE MUCH COOLER THAN AREAS INLAND. MID TO
UPPER SIXTIES ARE EXPECTED WELL INLAND WITH FORTIES RIGHT ALONG THE
LAKE. VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AND WINDS WILL
TURN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND...MAINLY INLAND FROM THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS TYPICAL OF SUCH LARGE SYSTEMS AS THIS ONE. HAVE
SIDED WITH THE 12Z NAM12 WHICH HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE WITH THE
ONSET OF THE RAIN AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALIGNED POPS
TO SHOW THE NORTHWARD TREND OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SLOWLY AROUND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY AND LIFT INTO
ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY. WITH COLD AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM
THIS SYSTEM AND DIURNAL HEATING...WILL SEE RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
RAIN ON MONDAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NEARBY
OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT
LATE AND TUESDAY NIGHT LATE WILL BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SEEING ALL SNOW. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FINALLY DEPARTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z...THEN MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IT SHOULD AFFECT KBRD BY END OF TAF PERIOD...BUT
REMAINING SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.  COLD FRONT STILL MOVING THROUGH
THE TERMINALS...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AHEAD OF IT AT KHYR
WITH THE REMAINING SITES TURNING NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST.  WINDS TURN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY 12Z...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  49  35  43 /  90  80  50  50
INL  39  49  32  40 /  80  70  50  60
BRD  46  55  34  41 /  90  60  40  40
HYR  44  57  37  43 /  70  80  70  50
ASX  41  56  37  44 /  70  80  70  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP





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