Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 030516
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1216 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
DIMINISH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE CWA DURING THE EVENING.
SOME GUSTY WINDS REMAINED ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEED VALUES HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.
COULD STILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES
AND LEECH LAKE AREAS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
OVERALL...THINK THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN FURTHER AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...PER HRRR AND RAP SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS THE 4KM
NMM WRF. WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MENTION FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A SFC LOW WAS MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AT 19Z WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT SWWD INTO WESTERN ND. A SFC TROF WAS ALSO FOUND IN CENTRAL ND.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING AHEAD OF THIS TROF IN THE VCNTY OF
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AN AREA OF SFC
FGEN WAS ALSO CO-LOCATED WITH THE STORMS. EXPECT THIS LINE OF STORMS
TO REACH NW MN BY 21Z. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND
REACH THE NW CORNER OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY BY 01Z. HOWEVER...IT IS AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WHEN THE STORMS BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR THAT
HAS BEEN CAMPED OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THIS TREND AS WELL. AS THIS
INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS DISSOLVES...THE NEXT ROUND WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AROUND 06Z AS THE SFC
FRONT MAKES PROGRESS EWD INTO THE REGION. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SEEN
ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE
ELEVATED IN NATURE.

ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING AS A THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS IS OVER THE REGION AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK. BY AFTERNOON...THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO NW WI WITH MAX HEATING...STORMS WILL BECOME A BIT
MORE VIGOROUS...AND BORDER ON SEVERE. SBCAPE INCREASES TO NEAR 3000
J/KG AND LI/S TO -8C PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SHOULD SEE SOME STORMS
NEAR SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS ARE 1 TO
1.25 INCHES. MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AND HAVE
ROBUST QPF BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

SUNDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND WHILE I HAVE MAINTAINED SOME POPS FOR THE EVENING
HOURS...EXPECT THEY WILL ONLY BE ONGOING AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AND EXIT QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING.  A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT TO FALL
INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS MONDAY
BACK IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES...WITH WEAK RIDGING TO ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  THIS TROUGHINESS TO OUR WEST IS GOING TO
SENT A STRONG...SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME FAIRLY HIGH CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EVEN WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.  THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY
SATURDAY...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF A TROUGH OUT WEST REMAINS
WITH WARM AIR STILL BEING FUNNELED IN OUR DIRECTION AND SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND ON SUNDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...AS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH A KBRD TO KCDD LINE
BY 15Z SUNDAY...AND KSTC TO NEAR KDLH LINE BY 18Z. THE FRONT WILL
BE THE CATALYST FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY...
WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP FROM EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO
KDLH AND THE NORTH SHORE BY MIDDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE IN WISCONSIN...ESPECIALLY FOR KHYR AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. SOME VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THE THUNDERSTORMS BUT OVERALL IT SHOULD BE VFR DUE TO DRY AIR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE
FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH SKIES
CLEARING AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING FOR A TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  67  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
INL  38  66  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  44  70  41  70 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  44  70  40  69 /  20   0   0  10
ASX  44  67  37  69 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GRANING






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