Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGRB 301955
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
255 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

CLOUDS HAVE ALL BUT CLEARED EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. HOWEVER A FEW TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 20S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS FAR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS TROUGH WILL DIMINISH AS
IT HEADS EAST INTO THE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ALTHOUGH RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE...THERE IS A CHANCE SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA BEFORE THE SYSTEM HEADS INTO
THE DRY AIR AND WASHES OUT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY AS THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS...WHEN BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE DRY ADIABATICALLY YIELDS
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE LAKES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD.

ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. MODELS GENERATE
SOME SPOTTY LIGHT QPF ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DUE TO
A WEAK MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND SUBTLE BOUNDARY OVER
THE AREA. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP OUR DRY FORECAST INTACT FOR NOW...
DUE TO LACK UP DYNAMIC SUPPORT.

PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS INCREASING
MOISTURE (H8 DEW POINTS +8 TO +10 C AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
50S) AND INSTABILITY (CAPE 1000-2000 J/KG...LI`S -4 TO -6...AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.5-7.5 C/KM) ADVECT INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25
TO 35 KTS OVER NC/C WI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVG...SUSPECT THAT A
FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SVR TSTMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

WILL LINGER SOME SMALL POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PERMIT
A LONE DRY PERIOD ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
WORK BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. HIGHER POPS WILL
WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 75 TO 80 AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE 60S
AFTER THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE CLEARING OUT OF THE EASTERN
TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. OTHER THAN THESE LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SKIES BECOME CLEAR
TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.