Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 260827
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
327 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NOT TOO
FAR FROM SEASONAL NORMALS.

EXPANSIVE AND COMPLEX BLOCKING IS IN PLACE ACRS MUCH OF
CANADA...THE NRN CONUS...AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE BLOCKING
WILL VERY SLOWLY BREAK DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NEXT
WEEK...SO IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FCST AREA UNTIL
NEXT WEEKEND.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS LONG AS
THE BLOCK ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES ARE
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. AND IF THE BLOCKING TAKES LONGER
THAN EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN...MUCH OF THE AREA COULD BE TOTALLY
DRY FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO SOME DAY TO DAY
VARIATION...BUT PROBABLY WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT-TERM AS SPRAWLING ANTICYCLONE
ACRS CANADA RIDGES INTO THE AREA AT LOW-LEVELS. ALOFT...SOME WK
SHRTWVS ROTG ARND UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WL DROP SWD
ACRS THE AREA FM TIME TO TIME. THEY WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
PATCHY HIGH AND MIDDLE CLDS...ESP IN THE E. NLY FLOW AT LOW-LEVELS
WL FEED COOL DRY AIR FM CANADA INTO THE AREA. BUT PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WL ALLOW FOR SIG DAYTIME WARMING...AND RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST THOUGH MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION AND TIMING
OF QPF IN THE AREA...IF THEY EVEN SHOW ANY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A CUT-OFF...OR TWO...THAT
WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH. THE 00Z NAM DEVELOPED THE 500MB LOW OVER
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY AND THEN HAD IT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
WISCONSIN WITH A SMALL AREA OF QPF IN NORTH CENTRAL AND THEN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS...00Z ECMWF...AND 00Z
GEM-NH ALL KEPT THE FORECAST AREA DRY SO HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE ANY
SLIGHT CHANCES THAT WERE IN THE FORECAST AND GO DRY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO REESTABLISH ITSELF BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PUSHES EASTWARD AND MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THE BLENDED SOLUTION ONLY HAS SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT THOSE
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT
WITH THE LATEST VERSIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALONG WITH
VERY FAVORABLE FLYING WEATHER. WINDS IN ERN WI WL NOT BE AS
STG/GUSTY AS YDA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI






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