Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 232247
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
547 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE COLD UPPER
LOW SYSTEM DEPARTED TO THE NORTHEAST EARLIER TODAY AND PULLED THE
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS OUT WITH IT...WHILE DRIER AIR ON NORTHWEST
WINDS POURED INTO THE STATE. SURFACE RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA WILL
SETTLE INTO THE STATE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
ON ITS HEALS. ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND COLD
START WITH THE DRY AIR MASS WILL GET THE FALLING TEMPERATURES OFF
TO A RUNNING START TONIGHT...BUT CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY SLOW
DOWN THE FALLING TEMPS LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE TREND OF BELOW GUIDANCE BUT ABOVE RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR
TONIGHT.

MODELS RUNS IN GENERAL SLIDE MID TO UPPER CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
FAIRLY QUICKLY ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD AFFECT AFTERNOON HIGHS
ESPECIALLY AFTER A COLD START. WAA PATTERN INCREASES FROM THE WEST
LATER FRIDAY FOR A RETURN OF PCPN CHANCE. THE NAM AND ECMWF BRINGS
LIGHT RAIN TO FAR WESTERN AREAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FASTER WITH SPREADING A BIT MORE PCPN
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH THE DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

THE BATTLE CONTINUES TO WAGE BETWEEN THE DRY HUDSON BAY HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
CONTINUES TO CREEP NORTH WITH EACH RUN...BRINGING PRECIPITATION
FARTHER NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS BATTLE IS OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR BEING PUMPED IN BY THE
HIGH TO THE NORTH FIGHTS MOISTURE BEING WRAPPED NORTH OF THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW...COINCIDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SHARP CUT
OFF OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION...OR AMOUNTS AS MUCH AS
ONE HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
VERIFIES. WITH THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AND HEFTY AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEING GENERATED THIS RUN WILL RAISE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER THE
NEARLY DRY ECMWF SOLUTION IS STILL TROUBLING AS THERE IS A CHANCE
NOTHING COULD FALL IF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH PREVAILS.

ONCE THIS LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST RIDGING REESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ALTHOUGH A FAIRLY NOTABLE MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE. GIVEN THE
DRYING TREND IN THE MODELS AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL REMOVE POPS
FROM THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE IN THE LATE PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE
WARMING TREND AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE COME IN WARMER THIS RUN AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS BY NEXT THURSDAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 60S...WITH A FEW 70
DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 541 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...
THEN THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MID-LEVEL DECK BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE PLAINS MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS TO PARTS OF NC/C WI LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





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