Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 052255
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
555 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

PRECIPITATION TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

SKIES WERE SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY...WHILE HIGH AND
MIDDLE CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29. RADAR
MOSAIC TIME LAPSE SHOWED ECHOES IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE MKX
FORECAST AREA...JUST SOUTH OF THE GRB FORECAST AREA TODAY. WOULD
HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THIS EVENING BUT NEEDED TO ADJUST UPWARD FOR
BETTER GRID CONTINUITY.

THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON LOOKS DRY BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES
STARTING THIS EVENING. MODELS HAD SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF QPF FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS ILLINOIS PUSHES NORTHWARD AND SOME MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA/WESTERN
WISCONSIN. 12Z GRB/MKX/INL ALL HAD SOME PRETTY DRY AIR AT LOW
LEVELS...SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE LARGE...AND MANY OF
THE LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THAT RECEIVED RAIN HAD
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES DURING THE RAIN. AM CONCERNED THAT LITTLE
RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE AND WHAT DOES MAY NOT BE ENOUGH
TO MEASURE IN MANY CASES. THUNDER APPEARED TO BE WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT CENTRAL WISCONSIN WAS IN SPC
GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AND OFFICES TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER SO HAVE INCLUDED AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS
THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES NORTH DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
IT LOOKS LIKE THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BRINGS WITH IT SEVERAL
POSSIBILITIES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.

WISCONSIN SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
MINNESOTA. THE FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY YET DOESN/T
HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW DRIVE THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SO THAT
WE SHOULD HAVE DRY WEATHER SATURDAY AND ALL OR MOST OF SUNDAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD MAKE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  VFR CIGS WITHIN A DRY AIRMASS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER.  TIMING IS
SUSPECT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS...BUT THINK MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE TAFS SITES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.  ONCE IN PLACE...CIGS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN VFR UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.  SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC





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