Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 162303
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
703 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR TO DATE ARE EXPECTED BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 70S INLAND FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN BOTH DAYS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BRINGING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF RAIN. THAT WILL THEN BE
FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST A WEEK OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAY
ONLY BE IN THE 40S ON A LEAST A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK. IT WOULD NOT
BE OUT THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME WET SNOW MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS
THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS WILL THERE BE FOG TONIGHT? AT THIS POINT I
THINK DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY SO I DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE RAIN TODAY AND CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THE PRIMARY DETERRENT TO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF FOG
TONIGHT IS THE DRY AIR COMING BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS TRAILING THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN IN THIS
MORNING. THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ENOUGH DRY AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION TO MINIMIZE THE FOG THREAT. EVEN SO...THE AREAS THAT WOULD HAVE
THE HIGHEST RISK FOR FOG WOULD BE NORTH GRAND HAVEN AND WEST OF
US-131 WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRED THIS MORNING. THE OTHER
AREA WOULD BE IN THE AREA NEAR I-69 SINCE THE THAT AREA WILL SEE
THE DRIER AIR COME IN LATER.

OTHERWISE WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE 1000/925 MB THICKNESS IS
EXPECTED THE THE WARMEST SO FAR THIS YEAR AND WOULD SUGGEST INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN... HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 70 TO 75. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FRONT IS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT SO SATURDAY
WILL ALSO BE RATHER WARM WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ON SUNDAY. A
CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL
BE VERY LITTLE TO NO SFC OR ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUNDAY. THEREFORE
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS VERY LOW.

A SIGNIFICANT WX PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK AS UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR MOVES IN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED
AND SHOWERY PATTERN WITH BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SOME WET SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX IN MID TO LATE WEEK ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
NORTHERN FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

THE MAIN RISK TO AVIATORS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SOME FOG. OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL
LIKELY TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. IF RADIATIONAL COOLING ENDS UP
STRONGER...WE COULD SEE IFR DEVELOPING.

VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL FRI ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS UNTIL THE SYSTEM
MOVES IN ON SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

THE LONE ADVISORY AT MAPLE RAPIDS CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT.
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION TODAY SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN AFFECT ON
THE DROP THAT IS BEING EXPERIENCED. WE SHOULD SEE LEVELS DROP BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE THIS EVENING.

BEYOND TWO DRY DAYS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE PATTERN GETS A BIT
ACTIVE AGAIN. WE COULD SEE SOME BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION BETWEEN
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. TOTAL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE NOT TOO
HEAVY. SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS MAY RESULT ON AREA RIVERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS POINT I DO NOT SEE ANY REAL CAUSE FOR
CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM






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