Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 250325
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1125 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH UPON WEST MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED MOST PLACES. THE
STEADIER RAIN WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THEN
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WE HAVE UPDATED THE FCST THIS EVENING TO FEATURE HIGHER CHCS OF
RAIN FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-96. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A
BANDED AREA OF RAIN MOVING IN ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWFA.
A LOT OF THIS IS LIKELY ALOFT WITH THE DRIER AIR INITIALLY IN
PLACE. HOWEVER IT IS INTENSE ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME OF IT WILL
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WITH SOME LIGHT...YET MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING AS WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME OF
THE RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES FROM MUSKEGON TO KALAMAZOO BY LATE EVENING.

THEN THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF LOW LOW TRACKING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REACHES THE SOUTHERN ZONES. QPF SHOULD BE A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING SATURDAY EVENING WITH SFC RIDGING
NOSING DOWN ONCE AGAIN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...ALTHOUGH THIS AIRMASS
IS NOT AS COLD AS THE LAST ONE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME FROST
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE HOLDS SWAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER QUIET WITH A SLIGHT
WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BLOCKED PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE MUCH OF SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK...GIVING US THE CHILLY WEATHER...WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN
BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  A NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE ALLOWING SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE
PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS BY TUESDAY.

HOWEVER THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN RATHER QUICKLY WITH BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY WEDNESDAY.  THIS
SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.  DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH FEEL WE WILL REMAIN DRY
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST SHOWERS.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS COMES
THROUGH...BUT THESE LOOK RATHER MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE RAIN THAT IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MI WILL LARGELY LEAD
TO VFR CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR COULD DEVELOP...MAINLY
TOWARD KAZO AND POSSIBLY KBTL. AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT THE RAIN
WILL PULL AWAY...LEADING TO A PRIMARILY DRY SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED NOT TOO FAR SOUTH...ROUGHLY
TO THE MI/IN BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE SHOULD BE
MONITORED AS THEY WILL TRY TO LIFT NORTH...BUT THE DRY AIRMASS
ARRIVING FROM ONTARIO WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STORMS SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...OSTUNO





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