Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 240345
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

CLOUDS WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT TONIGHT BUT IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
BUT WET WEATHER COULD BE MOVING BACK IN ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT AS CLOUDS DEPART AND WINDS
DECREASE WITH SFC RIDGING REPLACING THE LOW LIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND COULD
CHALLENGE RECORD LOWS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS.

SUNNY AND MILDER WEATHER FINALLY MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY BUT THIS
APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS PLAINS CYCLONE MOVES EAST AND TRACKS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP SHIELD IS KEY TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF 12Z FORECAST GUIDANCE WHICH WOULD BRING
PRECIP INTO ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIP MAY
START OFF AS A MIX SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AS INDICATED BY 12Z GFS SOUNDINGS AS THE
COLUMN SATURATES.

THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL ALSO DETERMINE MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH MAXES A FEW DEGREES BLO MAV NUMBERS
BASED ON EXPECTED PRECIP AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END SATURDAY EVENING POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A MIX WITH SNOW AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED EITHER AT THE
BEGINNING OR END OF THIS STORM AS PRECIP WOULD NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH
OR AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR SLIPPER ROADS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

MUCH OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS DRY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS KEEPS THE ORIGIN OF OUR AIR COMING FROM THE
JAMES BAY REGION.  THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED COOLER AND I HAVE INCHED
TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR SUN/MON.  FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE BOTH OF THESE NIGHT TOO...AS AREA FRUIT TREES THAT ARE
BEGINNING TO BUD...BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.

AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK THE NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW SHIFTS OUT TO
SEA WITH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING TAKING PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.  A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR BY WED/THU TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.  THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS IN THIS
TIME FRAME...BUT IT APPEARS UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS WHICH COULD
BRING THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS.  FOR NOW HAVE IT COVERED WITH 20
POPS TO ALLOW FOR THE MODELS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AN
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVER
LAND. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.



&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CORRECTED AT 1258 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RIVER LEVELS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY FALLING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING BY OFF TO OUR SOUTH. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. BUT DRY
WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DUE TO SATURDAY RAINFALL...BUT RIVER FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 24TH.

GRAND RAPIDS...26 SET IN 1969 AND 1971
LANSING........23 SET IN 1883...1892 AND 1999
MUSKEGON.......24 SET IN 1918.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ050-056>058-064>066-
     071>073.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
CLIMATE...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO






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