Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGRR 160711
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
310 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH FROM THE GULF. THE SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT LEADING TO A DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN IS BACK
IN THE PICTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER
LOW MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

TODAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY; WE/LL SEE HIGHS IN THE
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
COOLER WEATHER DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS TODAY. OVERALL...THE
FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK ALTHOUGH QPF HAS BEEN TRIMMED A BIT.

00Z SOUNDING AT DTX WAS EXTREMELY DRY BELOW 450 MB AND EXPLAINS WHY
WE HAVEN/T SEEN MUCH RAIN AT THE SFC DESPITE ECHOS ACROSS THE LAKE
SHORE. THE SFC WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE OVER THE
CWA TODAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATM MOISTEN AND
RAIN TO DEVELOP. KGRR-88D SHOWS ECHO INTENSITY INCREASING A BIT AS
PCPN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH FROM INDIANA. SHORT RANGE NWP SHOWED
THE AREA OF THETA-E DECREASING WITH HEIGHT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
CWA SO WE OPTED TO GO WITH NO THUNDER IN THE GRIDS TODAY. PCPN WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND END EARLY IN THE EVENING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM ONTARIO.

TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN A BIT BY THE SHOWERS TODAY AND WE`LL GO WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. UPPER HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RAIN MOVING IN ON
SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SFC LOW AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE LOW CUTS OFF AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY WITH VORT ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
CRASHING TO NEAR THE SFC...DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FT OVERNIGHT AS SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH. FURTHER LOWERING OF CIGS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR LIKELY AND IFR POSSIBLE.

BEST CHANCE OF IFR THURSDAY IS AT AZO AND BTL AND FELT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO BRING IN IFR CIGS AFTER 18Z AT THESE TWO TERMINALS.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN IFR REACHING ANY FARTHER NORTH AND EAST IS
STILL TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE OTHER TAFS.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE FROM AZO NORTH TO
MKG... SPREADING MORE NORTH AND EAST AFTER 12Z. RAIN GRADUALLY
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18-21Z THURSDAY BUT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

EAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL NOT BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE
A NEGLIGIBLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...04
MARINE...04









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.