Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 261459
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND BRING PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH A SFC RIDGE IN
CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTN
INTO THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN LWR MI.

HOWEVER A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRY
WX SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THAT WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE 30S. FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT SEEMS LOW OVERALL
GIVEN PARTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OVERNIGHT.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. ANY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE MAIN MESSAGES ARE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
MODERATING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NUDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY WITH 60S EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH 70S A
DECENT BET NEXT WEEKEND.

TWO TIME FRAMES OF CONCERN IN REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...THE FIRST BEING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE SECOND BEING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
PIVOTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
KICKING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM IS KEEPING
THINGS DRY. GIVEN A DRY SURFACE PATTERN (HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE) AND
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ROLL WITH A DRY FORECAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...A SHORTWAVE AT 500MB/S AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEKEND EITHER...BUT HAVE SOME POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...20-30 PCT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
SOME BROKEN CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5000FT. SKIES MAY
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN BASES ABOVE 5000FT.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-20
KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF WHITEHALL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LATEST HIRES MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS
LAKE BREEZE WITH SUSTAINED NNW WINDS AROUND 20 KTS DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET. THIS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
THE WAVES TO 3 TO 5 FEET. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST... NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE





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