Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 301749
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
149 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY RAIN AT FIRST.
SNOW WILL MIX IN FURTHER NORTH LATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SNOW
EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAINLY RAIN WILL BE COMMON
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE INDIANA BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-96 WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE
NORTH OF M-20.

DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL
RETURN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PRECIP POTENTIAL AND PRECIP
TYPE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING. THE CLIPPER IS CHARACTERIZED BY A MODEST H500-H300 PV
ANOMALY SLIPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA IN THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM APPROXIMATELY
CHICAGO TO TOLEDO OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AS PRECIP MOVES IN AND THE COLUMN BEGINS TO SATURATE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE MORE COMMON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-96.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 06Z. AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-96.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS
IN. FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED WITH A RUN
AT 60 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SFC LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
ON THURSDAY. LOWERED POPS AND QPF FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
THE WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SFC
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...SO LEFT THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A REINFORCING COLD SHOT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE 18Z FCSTS IS THE SYSTEM DROPPING SE THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING
WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. WIND GUSTS OF
20-30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TOWARD 21-23Z.

WE EXPECT PCPN TO START TO SLIP INTO KAZO AROUND 01Z...AND THEN
SPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES THROUGH ABOUT 03-04Z. WE
EXPECT THE TERMINALS ALL TO BE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE
EVENT THAT WILL LAST UNTIL ABOUT 12Z OR SO ON TUE. PCPN COULD
CHANGE OVER TO KLAN FOR THE LAST HOUR OR TWO AS THE COLDER AIR
REACHES THERE FIRST COMING IN FROM THE NE.

CONDITIONS WILL START OUT AT VFR AT ALL SITES AS THE PCPN BEGINS.
WE THEN EXPECT IT TO GO TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT THE NRN SITES
JUST N OF THE SFC LOW. THE SRN SITES WILL REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE
NIGHT UNTIL THE END OF THE EVENT WHEN THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THEN
SOME MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TOWARD THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TODAY AT 10-20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AND TURN SOUTHERLY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. 2-4
FOOT WAVES EXPECTED TODAY SUBSIDING TO 1-3 FEET THIS EVENING. A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY SNOW
NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...EBW






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